台灣因應台美中關係的策略選擇－1999-2005年戰略三角關係之分析

Taiwan's Alternative Counterplots for Present Taiwan-U.S.-China Triangle Relations

何振盛(Jeng-Sheng Ho) ； 劉性仁(Shing-Ren Liu)

《人文及管理學報》 4期 (2007/11) Pp. 259-288

https://doi.org/10.6177/lam.2007.04.16

摘要

本文依據「戰略三角角色量化定位分析」的概念分析1999年至2005年台美中關係，我們可以發現存在一個以美中為「夥伴」關係，台灣為「孤雛」的結婚型三角。這與前此學者根據該概念模型推演所預示的方向，並不全然吻合。然而，該概念模型所描述的實況，卻有助於瞭解台灣未來提升角色效益的最佳策略為何？亦即，對台灣而言，將「孤雛」的角色轉換為「朋友」的角色，才是符合理性的最佳選擇。接著本文以小國外交理論分析台灣在「權力平衡」與「相互依存」兩個概念下，其對美國的具體政策選項包括：要求具體履行安全承諾、強化台美經貿關係、積極參與和支援與配合美國民間第三部門的活動、推動城市外交，鞏固雙方實質關係、增加美國對於台灣的「需要性」等。而對中國的具體政策選項包括：統獨休兵、外交休兵、實現三通、武裝和平、建立「地點窗口」的溝通模式等。

關鍵字

戰略三角 ； 小國外交 ； 權力平衡 ； 相互依存 ； 策略選擇

並列摘要

This essay analyzes the Taiwan-U.S.-China triangle relations (1999-2005)with concepts of ”Analysis of Quantitative Orientation for Triangle Roles”, verifying that a ”Marriage” Triangle can be applied to depict the said triangle relations with roles of U.S. and China as the ”partner” as well as Taiwan as the ”outcast”. The depiction does not tally with the predicted orientation entirely and completely from the inference of the conceptual model. However, the account of the reality in the model helps better understand the best tactic of Taiwan to promote the ”self-utility” of its role. That is to say, recasting the role of ”outcast” with that of ”friend” will be the most reasonable choice for Taiwan. Following that, concepts of ”power balance” and ”interdependence” of Theories for Small Nations' Diplomacy are applied to analyze Taiwan's concrete policies toward the U.S. and China, for the former, including requests for concrete security commitment, strengthening of economic and trading interaction between Taiwan and the U.S., active participation in, assistance for and cooperation with the American Third Sector, promotion for city diplomacy, consolidating bilateral substantial relations, increasing the ”necessity” of the U.S. for Taiwan; as for the latter, including ceasing fire for pro-unification/pro-independence arguments, truce for diplomatic campaign, realization of Three Large Links, Armed Peace, establishment of ”Spot Windows” for communication.

並列關鍵字

Strategic Triangle ； Diplomacy of Small Nations ； Power Balance ； Interdependence ； Alternative Counterplot