我國農業技術變遷的指標架構與前推研究

The Framework Indexing and Forward Estimation of Technological Change in Taiwan Agriculture

黃寶祚(Bao-Tzuoh Huang)

《人文及管理學報》 6期 (2009/11) Pp. 155-207

https://doi.org/10.6177/lam.2009.06.16

摘要

在以往，對於生產力指標的佈建與衡量研究，係在所有投入都設定為可即刻調整下，做估測分析。因此，這些投入之中，可能包括了原材物燃料等中間投入（流量）部分，其優點為可即刻針對外來變化、驟至變革等，做出即時的反應，缺點則是類此的流量指標內容，已無法執行前向的預測規劃功能。本文為長期（跨世代）農業技術變遷的指標佈建研究，經體查早期農地、農機、以及「特殊型」農力等較高的短期僵固性之後，首先，乃佈建自民國41年以來四十年來的投產母體資料庫，接著，民國82年至101年之前推預測部分，依技術變遷的累積成長特性，將以其各偏生產力加權之方式處理。由本文的研究發現，國內長跨期的農業技術變遷，縱然會經歷幾年的轉型期或U型盤底走勢，然而若現階段新農力的整合績效規劃得當，則平均來說，尚可維持住2.68%漲幅之持續成長，可為當前政府推動之綠能升級、農村再生等愛台總體計畫，奠定更厚實的根基。

關鍵字

指數研究 ； 技術進步衡量 ； 生產力總合分析

並列摘要

Previous measures of multifactor productivity growth have been based on homogenous inputs and have assumed all inputs are instantaneously adjustable, thus ignoring the important impacts of the short-run fixity of certain primary inputs (not intermediate inputs). The main objective of this paper is to construct indexes of long-term agricultural technological change since 1952. The trend indexes of the cohort study take into account the adjustment of the weighted productivity measures that the pervasive and chronic excess capacity exists in Taiwan's agricultural sector. Our results suggest that the labor performance is positively related to technical progress (2.68% during 1993-2012). Furthermore, it is found that the weighted multifactor productivity growth declined slowly in the latter years of the first decade of this century and followed by a rapid U-type recovery.

並列關鍵字

Index number study ； measurement of technical progress ； aggregation of partial productivity