本文從台灣的觀點分析甫就任的美國總統歐巴馬的兩岸政策,本文認爲歐巴馬的全球戰略佈局考量下,可以從中觀察他對中國的態度,以及未來兩岸政策的發展趨勢。基本上,未來的美中關係將會提升他的戰略層次,而美台關係應該不會超越以往小布希總統時代。主要研判的根據基於美國內部金融危機尚未解決的狀況下,維持台海和平穩定的現狀,爲其最重要的戰略考量。本文主要關切的議題在於美中兩方在台海的戰略目標底線爲何,必須考量那些影響因素,台灣應該有哪些因應的思維。是以,本文先分析美國智庫的政策建議、美國新政府的大戰略選擇、歐巴馬的兩岸政策趨向、台灣對美國兩岸政策的敏感性、台灣關切歐巴馬的國際戰略佈局,最後,提出本文的結語。
This article aims to analyze Obama's cross-strait policy after his inauguration. The text maintains that the attitudes of the US toward China and the development of future' cross-strait policy can be observed from Obama's global strategic arrangement. Basically, the future US-China relations will jump to a whole new strategic level and the future US-Taiwan relations possibly won't be as good as before. This judgment is based on the reasoning that the most important strategic consideration is to maintain the stability across the strait whilst the financial crisis in the US remains unsolved. The article is mainly concerned with what the strategic goals between China and the US are, what factors should be considered and what strategy Taiwan should apply.