歐巴馬時代的美國－亞太關係展望

於2008年11月當選總統的歐巴馬，因民主黨也掌控參眾兩院多數，對美國外交政策居於絕對主導地位。而相對於歐洲國家給予歐巴馬的高度支持，亞洲國家的反應就比較複雜。印尼因歐巴馬在此度過童年之故，對歐巴馬熱烈歡迎。但是日本、中國、韓國、印度等亞洲大國的官方反應，遠比歐洲來得冷淡許多。不少觀察家認爲未來美國政策會由過去「重歐輕亞」轉向「重亞輕歐」。但困頓於經濟危機與誓言自伊拉克撤軍，以及要重新聚焦於反恐的歐巴馬政府，未來4年與亞洲的關係還充滿未知數。本文透過先分析歐巴馬外交政策團隊的組合、歐巴馬上台時的亞洲戰略環境的變化，先勾勒可能對政策產生限制的結構。其次再逐一檢視歐巴馬上台時美國與亞洲大國的關係，以及可能在4年內出現的重大危機後，本文認爲除非歐巴馬努力重建與其亞洲盟邦的互信，否則由亞洲國家對歐巴馬政府既有政策傾向的可能反應來看，未來4年美國與亞洲關係的可能發展，不會太平穩。由於從現在到2012年亞洲在經濟、安全與政治都將出現重大變化，如果持續目前的作爲，歡巴馬政府的政策可能會導致4年後美國在亞洲的邊緣化。

關鍵字

歐巴馬；亞太安全；美國亞太政策

並列摘要

On November 2008, Obama was elected as the President of the United States, and his party also captured the majority of both houses in the Congress. While the European government enthusiastically embraces Obama, Asia's major powers, China, Japan, India， the South Korea, seem to be reserved. Many Observers have speculated that the U.S. foreign policy focus will shift from Europe to Asia. The U.S.-Asia relations in the next four years seems uncertain, for the current global economic crisis, Obama's campaign pledge of withdrawing military capability from Iraq, and his vow to refocus on anti-terrorism on Afghanistan and Pakistan. This paper first analyzes Obama's foreign policy team and changes of the Asia-Pacific strategic environment confronting Obama. Then, this paper examines the bilateral relationship between the U .S. and the major Asian powers, and the possible crises laid ahead. This paper concludes that, only if Obama changes his foreign policy course with much more efforts on Asian, the U.S.-Asian relation seems to be rough within the four years.