Australia-China Relations since the Early 1990s: An Overall View

九0年代初期以來的澳洲與中共關係

柯林•邁克(Colin Mackerras)

《澳洲研究》 4期 (2004/12) Pp. 107-138

https://doi.org/10.30414/TJAS.200412_(4).0004

摘要

本文提供自九0年代初期以來澳中關係的概觀及評估。此期間有幾個相關的國際潮流和事件發生，包括江澤民在中國權力的鞏固及其在2002年11月辭去中共總書記、霍華德政府的當選及台海危機（二者均在1996年3月）、鄧小平去世（1997年2月）、2000年3月陳水扁臺灣在當選與就職，布希在美國崛起、911恐怖份子攻擊事件以及2001年的反恐戰爭。中國整體的發展趨勢是持續在經濟與國際地位上的提升。 本文述及澳中綜合雙邊關係，包含領導人互訪、全面的氣氛以及貿易、投資、旅遊等經濟互動與美國在此雙邊關係中的角色，如戰區導彈防禦以及美國的反恐戰爭及其衝擊等。此外，還論及臺灣、西藏與香港在此雙邊關係的角色以及人權、偷渡、奧運等議題對兩國關係的影響。 本文的結論有三：首先是澳中關係大體上是健全的，而且近幾年的發展尤其是如此，但是上述的一些因素仍有引發較大摩擦的潛在性。其次是隨著中國崛起成為區域和世界的強權，澳中關係已越來越不對稱。有些原本是引發澳中兩國不和的因素似乎已不再如此，這可能部分是因為兩國關係越來越不對稱所致。最後是由於經貿發展有發展的潛力，經濟關係已成為澳中關係的最主要的穩定因素，足以緩和不利的發展，使健全的關係持續。作者認為澳中這種友好關係勢將繼續至2008年北京奧運會之後，甚至更長久。另一方面，甚至早在九O年代中期就有專家指出澳中關係的不對稱性。澳洲雖然表現不俗，但是這種不對稱性卻非常明顯地在很多方面不斷增加，尤其是在澳中貿易的不平衡方面，對中貿易赤字持續增加。 由於澳洲與美國是親密盟友，中美不可避免地會衝擊中澳關係。2002年美國的最大關切是反恐戰爭。中共在自身的考量下，明顯是伊斯蘭主義的不安定與潛在的疆獨問題，願意加入反恐戰爭。澳洲政府對2002年達賴喇嘛訪澳的反應清楚地顯示霍華德已改變1996年剛接掌總理時的立場，轉向讓中共當局欣慰的作法。澳中對伊拉克戰爭有爭議，但卻未嚴重到對兩國關係發生反面影響。只有兩件事可能對澳中關係產生長期的破壞，即中國發生內戰或是美中發生戰爭，最有可能是為臺灣的未來。第一種情境可能不致波及中國最富庶的東海岸地區，所以兩國關係的全面斷絕未必會發生。但是第二種情境將使澳洲面臨來自美中雙方要求支持的強大壓力。雖然這種可能性不能完全排除，但許多本文範圍以外的理由使我認為這種情境很可能發生。

關鍵字

澳洲 ； 中共 ； 反恐 ； 人權 ； 投資

並列摘要

The paper will provide an overview and evaluation of Australia-China relations since the early 1990s, especially in the field of politico-strategic and economic affairs. This period saw several major relevant international trends and events, including the consolidation of Jiang Zemin's power in China and his retirement from the position of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) general secretary in November 2002, the election of the Howard government and the crisis in the Taiwan Strait (both March 1996), the death of Deng Xiaoping (February 1997), the election in March 2000 and inauguration (May) of Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan, the rise of George W. Bush in the United States, and the 11 September terrorist incidents and the resultant war against terrorism in 2001. The overall trend for China was to continue to rise both economically and in world status.
General bilateral relations between China and Australia
Australia-China relations did surprisingly well overall during this period. I say 'surprisingly', because Howard quickly gained the reputation of being much less interested in Asia than his predecessor Paul Keating had been. Relations with several other Asian countries, especially Indonesia, struck some quite serious obstacles, while Howard took Australia back to a position even closer to the United States and Britain than under Keating, despite the political difference with the Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair in the latter county.
The end of the 1980s and beginning of the 1990s saw a major downturn in relations due to the Beijing massacre of 3 4 June 1989, and there will be more to say about that in the section on human rights and elsewhere. Prime Minister Paul Keating visited China in June 1993, his focus being much more on economic relations and trade than on human rights. Although relations were certainly not back to the pre-1989 days, this visit did mark an upturn in the priority that Australia attached to its relations with China.
In terms of relations with China there were several incidents that marred the first year of the Howard government after it came to power in March 1996 and these will be discussed below in the relevant places. However, Howard visited China in March and April 1997. Just like Keating before him, Howard's focus was clearly economic, but he did succeed in overcoming to a large extent the stigma the Chinese government appeared to have attached to him. In any case, relations have remained generally cordial since that time, climaxing in a further visit Howard made to China in mid-2002, which was followed by an announcement in August that the two countries had reached a A$25 billion contract for the sale of liquefied natural gas to China.

並列關鍵字

Australia ； China ； International Relations ； National Missile Defenc ； Human rights ； Terrorism