大陸宏觀調控政策對台灣經濟與台商大陸投資效益影響之研究

根據大陸國家統計局的資料顯示，以2005年第二季為例，大陸國內生產毛額(GDP)成長9.7%，比第一季下降了0.1個百分點；固定資產投資成長28.6%，比第一季下降了14.4個百分點，其中尤以鋼鐵、水泥、房地產開發等行業投資擴張下降幅度最大，過熱的經濟形勢似已有所緩和。然而，有很多國內外專家提出質疑，認為當前宏觀調控政策雖已見成效，但經濟過熱的問題並未完全化解。國際貨幣基金(IMF)針對中國大陸經濟的調查研究報告亦指出，大陸的宏觀經濟仍然有過熱的現象。本研究將針對以下幾項議題進行深入研析：1.中國大陸宏觀調控政策成效與衍生問題；2.中國大陸宏觀調政策已面臨新的挑戰；3. 2004年中國大陸吸引外資情形與未來走向分析；4. 2005年中國大陸吸引外資有利與不利因素分析；5.外商投資大陸未來可能走向之研析；6.外資對中國大陸經濟未來發展之影響；7. 2006年中國大陸宏觀調控政策基調與體制改革未來走勢之研析；8.中國大陸宏觀調控政策方向與對台灣經濟未來發展之影響。

關鍵字

宏觀調控政策；國際貨幣基金IMF ；體制改革

並列摘要

This thesis will focus on the following issues: The influences of Macro-economic adjustment policy toward the foreign investment, in the meanwhile, the coming challenge whether will reduce down the effects to Taiwan economic development, in addition to the developments of enterprises coming from Taiwan. Macro-economic adjustment and control policy also extended several influences both in positive and negative from Taiwan's enterprises' investments, in the meanwhile, we will provide some suggestions finally. This thesis will mainly focus on the following issues and analyze possible influences from Macro-economic adjustment policy of Mainland-China. We analyze the impacts toward the enterprises' investments into Mainland-Chian, simultaneously, in conclusion, we will provide some suggestions to both academic research institutions and governmental officials. The main focus is on the following eight issues. 1. The macro adjustment and control policy effect of Mainland- China and questions of deriving 2. The macro scopic of Mainland China's adjustments from the policy and facing the new coming challenge. 3. Mainland China will absorb the situation of the foreign capitals and analyze future trend in 2004. 4. Analyze the factors favorable and unfavourable which Mainland-China will absorb the foreign capitals in 2005. 5. It is analysed that the foreign investments may move towards in the future at continent. 6. Influences on future development of Mainland-China's economy of the foreign capitals. 7. Fundamental key and grinding analysis of tendency in the future of institutional revolutionary system of the macro adjustments and control policy in Mainland-China's of 2006. 8. The macro adjustments and control policy direction in Mainland-China and influences on future development of the economy from Taiwan. In conclusion, we will provide some suggestions to current governmental decision public-affairs for references.