專業經理人盈餘管理與財務決策－傳統產業之實證研究

Earnings Management and Financial Decision-Making on Professional Manager: Empirical Study of Traditional Firms

余惠芳(Hui-Fun Yu) ； 翁雯棋(Wen-Chi Wong)

《全球管理與經濟》 11卷2期 (2015/12) Pp. 1-22

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.2015.11(2).1

摘要

本文以企業會計資訊系統（Accounting Data System）與統計科學方法，專業經理人觀點，找出公司盈餘管理之顯著變數與財務決策（Financial Decision-Making），建構企業信用風險模型（Credit Risk Models）。實證分析上，首次嘗試使用K-S檢定、M-U檢定、Pearson與VIF檢定、多元Logistic迴歸分析，建立傳產業盈餘管理與信用風險模型。實證結果發現，1.影響公司盈餘管理之顯著變數有速動比率、利息保障倍數、現金流量允當比率、每股盈餘（EPS）與內部保留率，2.影響公司績效之主要指標為償債能力、經營能力與獲利能力指標。研究建議，專業經理人財務決策為企業將盈餘保留，1.宜先行償還負債，分配後盈餘減少，內部保留率降低；接著總負債減少，現金流量允當比率提高，則公司獲利與經營能力增強；2.股票買回，使加權平均流通在外股數降低，每股盈餘提高，增強公司獲利能力；3.當利息費用增加，利息保障倍數降低，宜償還短中期流動負債，提高速動比率；持續股票買回，降低流通在外股票，提高每股盈餘，可增強公司償債與獲利能力，降低傳產業發生信用風險之機率。實證價值與意涵，為達成公司盈餘管理目標，傳產業以降低內部保留率，為提高企業獲利能力之關鍵成功因子，值得專業經理人財務決策參考。

關鍵字

專業經理人 ； 盈餘管理 ； 財務決策 ； 信用風險模型

並列摘要

This paper primarily used accounting data system and statistical methods to construct a credit risk model on professional manager viewpoint. The author picked out the significant variables and financial decision-making in corporate earnings management. In its empirical analysis, this is the first study that attempts to study uses the K-S tests, and M-U tests, and Pearson tests and VIF tests, and multi-logistic regressions models on earnings management in traditional firm. Findings, firstly is the significant variables in earnings management is the quick ratio, and the times interest earned, and the cash flow adequacy ratio, and the EPS, and the retention ratio. Second, solvency, operating performance, and profitability indicators are the principal financial ratio variables. Empirical results suggest that professional manager financial decision-making is keep the surplus, firstly paid creditor then the retention ratio decreased, and the cash flow adequacy ratio increased, improve profitability and operating performance of the company. Secondly, to buy back shares then increasing the EPS, improve profitability of the company. Thirdly, the interest expense increased and the times interest earned decreased, to paid liquidity debt, then the liquidity ratio increased, and to buy back shares then increasing the EPS, improve solvency and profitability of the company, and can lower the likelihood of credit risk in traditional firm. Implications, reduce the retention ratio is a key successful factor improve profitability of the company. The paper is useful to researchers and professional managers who are focused on financial decision-making and earnings management implementation.

並列關鍵字

Professional Manager ； Earnings Management ； Financial Decision-Making ； Credit Risk Models