各種盈餘管理模型預測能力比較研究－以我國上市公司電子產業為例

A Study on the Predictability of Various Earning Management Models-Taking Listed Companies in the Electronic Industry in Taiwan as an Example

王春娥(Chun-Erh Wang) ； 楊清溪(Ching-His Yang)

《文大商管學報》 12卷2期 (2007/12) Pp. 65-94

https://doi.org/10.30163/BR.200712.0004

摘要

在盈餘管理方面國內對於盈餘管理之研究文獻頗多，但大都以Dechow, Sloan and Sweeney(1995)所提出的Modified Jones Model爲主。導致日後國內有關盈餘管理之研究皆延用此模型，但經過二十年的環境變遷因素，可能對原實證研究之模型有干擾，再加上國內與國外的產業特質可能有所不同，利用Modified Jones Model所計算裁決性應計項目是否爲最佳的預測能力之模型？我國上市電子產業業績衰退公司盈餘操縱使用的會計科目爲何？管理當局對於盈餘管理時機是否會對季盈餘進行操縱，時機爲何？爲了瞭解此問題，本研究針對Dechow et al.檢驗五種衡量模型作爲研究主題進行實證研究。本研究經過實證研究發現，在五種模型中以Industry Model對於盈餘管理會計資訊內涵偵測能力最強，而Modified Jones Model並非如預期中顯示出最大的檢定力，同時發現DeAngelo Model並未能有效偵測到盈餘管理會計資訊內涵；應計項目有關的個別會計科目以應收款項、應付款項、預付款項及折舊是管理當局常用來操縱盈餘項目；我國上市公司電子業業績衰退公司，在業績衰退期間會利用裁決性應計項目的動機及經營策略，且以前三季爲主要時機，並非傾向第三季爲主要控制時點。

關鍵字

盈餘管理 ； Modified Jones模型 ； 應計項目 ； Industry模型

並列摘要

Although many researches on earning management have been investigated for the past twenty years, they are mainly based on the Modified Jones Model proposed by Dechow, Sloan and Sweeney. However, due to the changes in industrial environment, and varied aspects among different enterprises in Taiwan, whether the Modified Jones Model remains the most appropriate and predictable one is to be further investigated. In addition, this paper also intends to conduct an empirical study based on Modified Jones Model to examine the following issues. First, the best time to operate quarter earning management. Secondly, the accounts used to manipulate for those declined companies in the electronic industry in Taiwan.
This empirical study found that the industry model is very useful to detect the contents of information of the earnings management accounting. However, the modified Jones Model does not display the maximum detection effect as expected. At the same time, this study also found that the DeAngelo Model could not detect the contents of information of the earnings management accounting in a effective way. To the management, four individual accounting items related to accountable items are often used to get control of the earning items: Account receivable, account payable, pre-paid items, and depreciation ones. Taiwan's listed companies in electric industry always take advantage of the motives and operation strategies based on decisive accountable items while their sales performance is recessive. Furthermore, they always take the first three quarters as the main targets instead of the third quarter as the main control target.

並列關鍵字

earnings management ； modified Jones model ； accrual items ； industry model

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