金融風暴與企業盈餘管理之研究

Earnings Management and The Financial Crisis

陳旭東(Hsu-Tung Chen)

指導教授 ： 黃瓊慧

國立臺北大學/商學院/會計學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本研究主要探討美國次級房貸風暴引發全球性金融風暴後，對企業盈餘管理之影響，並以國內上市櫃公司2004年至2006年為金融風暴前及2007年至2009年為金融風暴期間進行實證測試。
本研究認為，在金融風暴期間，公司管理階層的行為難免會受金融風暴影響，當投資人感受到風暴的不確定性，而產生恐慌性抛售持股，並嚴重影響股價時，經理人為彌補經濟衝擊對公司盈餘的影響而可能從事較積極的盈餘管理行為；惟若整個財務狀況短時間無法好轉，在投資人對公司亦不持樂觀期待下，由於公司績效可被歸咎於受經濟風暴所影響，而非管理階層之責任，則經理人就有可能不進行盈餘管理，使其公司顯示當年度有虧損或盈餘衰退，甚而可能管理盈餘向下以降低當年度盈餘，而讓未來年度之盈餘有較佳表現。
分析結果指出：相對金融風暴前，在金融風暴期間公司會減少負向的盈餘管理，從事較多正向盈餘管理行為，且其操弄程度會更勝於以往。各產業之正向盈餘管理個數，以電子工業類股、塑膠類股…等在金融風暴期間個數比較金融風暴前為多；各產業之負向盈餘管理個數，以電子工業類股、化學生技類股、塑膠類股…等在金融風暴期間比較金融風暴前個數少。此外，不同期間各產業之盈餘管理的現象程度亦有顯著不同，亦即在金融風暴下，企業會從事較多且較嚴重的正向盈餘管理；惟各產業間仍有程度上的差異存在。最後，研究發現金融風暴前，有盈餘成長的企業會藉由正的裁量性應計項目從事較多的盈餘操弄，以極大化公司盈餘；在金融風暴期間，則有盈餘平穩化現象的公司較會減少能增加盈餘的正裁量性應計數，但部分企業藉機洗大澡的現象亦可能存在，惟其統計結果未達顯著水準。

關鍵字

盈餘管理、裁決性應計項目、洗大澡、盈餘平穏、盈餘衰退

並列摘要

Abstract

This study focused on the impact of enterprises’ earnings management after global financial crisis triggered by U.S. subprime mortgage crisis; and conducted empirical tests to domestic listed companies before the financial crisis (from 2004 to 2006) and during the financial crisis (from 2007 to 2009).

This study suggests that during financial crisis, enterprise management's behavior will be inevitably affected. When investors feel uncertainty of financial crisis and engage in panic sell-off of shares which seriously affect the stock price, in order to make up the effect of economic impact to the enterprise, managers may conduct more proactive earning management behaviors. However, if the financial situation can not be improved within a short period of time and investors lose faith of the enterprise, enterprise performance may be attributed to the impact of financial crisis rather than the responsibility of management; managers may not conduct earning management and simply let the enterprise show a loss or earning recession. They may even lower earning by earning management to reduce annual earning of the year so they can show better performance with earnings in future years.

Analytic result pointed out: in respect to the condition before financial crisis, during financial crisis, enterprise tends to reduce pessimistic forecast (negative forecast error) and implement more optimistic forecast (positive forecast error), and its degree of manipulation will be more than in the past. Comparing the numbers of optimistic forecast earning management of various industries, such as Electronic Industry, Plastic Industry, and … etc, the number is more during financial crisis than before financial crisis. Comparing the numbers of pessimistic forecast earning management of various industries, such as Electronic Industry, Chemical and Biotechnology Industry, Plastic Industry, and … etc, the number is less during financial crisis than before financial crisis. However, at different period of time, there is significant difference on phenomenon level of earning management for different industries. In other words, enterprises conduct more and more serious optimistic forecast earning management during financial crisis, but difference on the level of management certainly exist for different industries. Finally, the study found that before financial crisis, enterprise with earning growth conducts more earning manipulation via positive discretionary accruals in order to maximize enterprise earning. During financial crisis, enterprise with steady earning is more likely to reduce positive discretionary accruals which increase earning; however, some enterprises may take the opportunity to “take a bath,” but such statistic result is below significant level.

並列關鍵字

Earnings Management ,Discretionary Accruals ,Take a Bath , Smooth Earnings decline,

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