台灣老人住宅產業發展之系統動態學模型

The System Dynamics Approach to the Development of the Housing Industry for the Elderly in Taiwan

蕭志同(Chih-Tung Hsiao) ； 翁瑜鴻(Yu-Hong Wong) ； 姚名鴻(Ming-Hung Yao)

《臺灣企業績效學刊》 3卷2期 (2010/06) Pp. 207-229

https://doi.org/10.6697/TBPJ.201006_3(2).0003

摘要

近十幾年來台灣老年人口急遽增加，截至2007年底老年人口已達207萬人，占總人口比例的10.2%，因此台灣已成為高齡化社會，老人醫療衛生之問題受到高度的重視，但老人住宅產業之發展與管理仍待改善。本研究目的嘗試探討台灣老人住宅產業發展結構，找出關鍵因素以作為政府、業界決策參考依據及學術界研究方法之參考。方法：本文利用系統動態學(system dynamics)對台灣老人住宅產業發展作宏觀角度之研究，以探索各因素間之因果關係，即了解其系統結構，並解釋其系統行為。結果：本研究發現台灣老人住宅產業發展是一個複雜且動態之系統，包含五個重要積量：累積專業人力、累積硬體設施質與量、老人住宅品質、累積老人住宅數量、以及累積老人入住量。換言之，這五個重要積量所形成之關鍵環路交互作用下，交織成台灣老人住宅產業發展之複雜動態結構，並影響未來發展趨勢。結論：台灣老人住宅產業發展是由數個關鍵因果環路與五個重要變數所組成之動態結構，並且牽涉到許多系統內的因素，以及受到環境變數之衝擊。

關鍵字

老人住宅產業 ； 系統思考 ； 系統動態學 ； 公衛政策

並列摘要

The number of the elderly population in Taiwan has increased sharply during the past several decades. Nowadays, Taiwan has been considered as an aging society. Although some medical and hygiene issues of the elderly have caught great attention, other issues still need for more concerns, such as the development and management of the housing industry for the elderly. This study applied the system dynamics approach to the development of the elderly housing industry in Taiwan. We investigated the causal relation among several variables, which helps us to better understand the structure of the development of the elderly housing industry, to explain its dynamics, and to predict its trend. We found that the elderly housing industry in Taiwan is a complex and dynamic system with five level variables: (1) the number of professional nurses, (2) the quantity of the infrastructure and amenities, (3) the quality of the housing, (4) the accumulated number of housing for the elderly, and (5) the number of the elderly that are looking for housing. The development of the elderly housing industry in Taiwan is a dynamic structure, which is composed of several important loops of mutual interactions of these five level variables. Some factors in the system, as well as the shock of the exogenous environment, might affect its dynamic structure, which is worth further investigating.

並列關鍵字

Elderly Housing Industry ； System Thinking ； System Dynamics ； Public Health Policy

參考文獻

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