以景氣長波宏觀當代台灣的失業問題

Contemporary Unemployment Problem in Taiwan: A Macro View

彭百崇(Pai-Tsung Pang)

《台灣勞動評論》 2卷1期 (2010/06) Pp. 1-19

https://doi.org/10.29744/TLR.201006.0001

摘要

台灣經濟發展歷經七次循環階段，自1998年第五階段循環之後，失業始成爲問題。本世紀初4%以上的高失業率，是反映上一世紀第二次經濟轉型所種下之結構性失業問題，2008年下半年失業率在4%至5%的邊際變動，是反映經濟衰退。自2009年，失業率急遽跳升至5%至6%的邊際變動，則是反映金融海嘯所誘發的經濟波動。宏觀當代台灣失業問題的特質，會因經濟衰退而惡化，卻無法隨著經濟復甦而快速好轉。特別是，當前台灣勞動市場的長期失業隱然惡化，對應2010年2月的失業率不降反升，台灣結構性失業問題似乎加劇。

關鍵字

經濟循環 ； 循環性失業 ； 結構性失業 ； 長期失業

並列摘要

The aim of this paper is to examine the process of the unemployment changes in Taiwan in a macro approach. Over a historical view of Taiwan's economic development, there have been seven cyclical phrases since the mid-1960s. It was not until the fifth cyclical phrase during the 1990s that the unemployment problem in Taiwan became more and more serious, with the unemployment rate reaching a record high of 2.99% in 2000. Thereafter, there was no sign of relief within the labor market, indicating that Taiwan's economy started experiencing both the structural and cyclical unemployment. In fact, since the fifth cyclical phrase, Taiwan encountered the structural unemployment as a result of the transformation of the Taiwan's economy in the last century, with a dramatic rise up to 4.57% in 2001 and 5.17% in 2002, then a gradual decrease down to 3.91% in 2007. And then again, the island's unemployment rate climbed sharply from 4.14% in 2008 up to 5.86% in 2009, with the rate eventually reaching an all-time high of 6.13% in August, 2009, that reflected the impact of the financial crisis since 2008. It also seems that Taiwan's economy is suffering from the worse structural unemployment corresponding to the longer-term unemployment.

並列關鍵字

Business Cycle ； Structural Unemployment ； Cyclical Unemployment ； Long-Term Unemployment