失業問題不僅會造成個人經濟困境,嚴重將會影響整個國家的經濟發展。本文建構一個總體計量模型,深入描繪台灣之勞動市場,分析面對金融海嘯之景氣波動、兩岸貿易自由化所產生大陸的磁吸效應、台灣平均薪資下跌等議題,及其對就業市場與整體經濟的影響。 面對景氣循環所引發的失業潮,政府給予失業者之失業保險金雖然能夠給予生活協助,但是優渥的失業福利是否會影響失業勞工尋職意願,導致失業率無法減緩?實證結果發現,當提高失業給付金額將會增加失業率,對國民生產與經濟成長皆產生負面影響。因此,政府面對失業問題應先思考台灣當前之失業主因,制定政策才能對症下藥,提升就業媒合機率。 台灣於1997年就存在產業空洞化之問題,加上近年兩岸貿易回溫,面對激烈的國際競爭與自由化,將會衝擊台灣的就業市場,實證結果顯示,產業外移程度越高,失業率增加。因此,政府面對結構性之失業,應思考就職訓練、產學合作等配套措施,減緩兩岸自由貿易之衝擊。 台灣從出口工業轉型為內需導向之服務業,提高產業之附加價值才能有效吸收結構性失業人口,本文選用加薪之方式提高勞動生產力,實證結果亦顯示,加薪將減緩失業,政府與企業應採取任何促進薪資提升之方法。
The problem of unemployment not only affects individual living standard but also impairs the growth of economy. This paper constructs Taiwan’s macroeconomic model which captures labor market and employs this model to investigate the following impacts on the economy: financial crisis, the shifts of domestic firms to mainland China due to market liberalization and lower wages. Facing higher unemployment rate during economic fluctuations, Taiwan government gives employment insurance to the unemployed, but this subsidy may make people search job passively. The empirical results show that increasing unemployment benefits will raise the unemployment rate and decrease domestic production and economic growth rate. Therefore, the government intends to investigate the forces behind unemployment and make appropriate policies to lower the unemployment rate efficiently. Deindustrialization has started in Taiwan since 1997. The recent trade competition from mainland China after trade liberalization further exacerbates Taiwan economy. Our research finds that unemployment rate is sensitive to deindustrialization. Hence, government needs to focus on programs such as job-training and industry-university cooperation in order to lessen the impacts from trade liberalization. The growth engine in Taiwan has converted from export orientation to domestic demand. The structural unemployed workers can be absorbed by increasing added value of services. In this paper, we find that increasing wages will raise the labor productivity and lower the unemployment rate. We also suggest the government and the enterprise should adopt proper measures to lift wages.