Predicting Economic Crisis using Financial to Real Sector Disproportion: Theory And Evidence

Anna Svirina ； Elena Parfenova ； Olga Shindor

《Journal of Economics Studies and Research》 2016卷 (2016/12) Pp. c1-8

https://doi.org/10.5171/2016.831476

摘要

The paper analyzes the possibility of implementing the financial/real sector ratio as a predictor of economic crisis using evidence based upon US economy data (volumes of financial and real sectors of the economy estimated for each year between 1867 and 2014). The study suggests that the implementation of this predictor requires the use of quantum-based approach (i.e. Heisenberg uncertainty principle) aiming to evaluate disproportions between financial and real sectors of the economy to use the corresponding ratio as an indicator of upcoming economic crisis. Thus, the suggested theory is based upon developmental theory and quantum theory, while the evidential part of the study includes the evaluation of financial and real sectors' dynamics by means of graph analysis and wavelet transform. The quantitative results support the hypothesis that the ratio between the financial and real sectors of the economy, assessed by means of wavelet transform, can be used as a predictor of economic crisis 4-5 years prior to its occurrence. Wavelet transform also allows indicating the possible intensity of the upcoming crisis.

關鍵字

economic cycles ； economic crisis ； quantum economics ； financial sector ； real sector