房貸需求與房屋供給對房價的影響

The Impact of Mortgage Demand and Housing Supply on Housing Prices

蔡永順(Tsai, Yung-Shun) ； 臧仕維(Tzang, Shyh-Weir) ； 黃乃玟(Huang, Nai-Wen) ； 張俊評(Chang, Chun-Ping)

《藝見學刊》 23期 (2022/04) Pp. 49-68

https://doi.org/10.6207/ART-VISION.202204_(23).049-068

摘要

一直以來，國人受傳統文化與思想的影響，多認為擁房是人生重要甚至必要之事，因此房價高低便成為一般民眾、社會和國家所關注的議題。林素菁、林祖嘉（2001）指出，房價應同時由住宅的供給與需求來決定。由此，本研究在需求層面聚焦於房貸，供給層面聚焦於餘屋，並採用VAR向量自我迴歸模型來驗證各供需變數對房價的影響。實證結果顯示：五大銀行承做房貸總金額與房價、房貸利率與房價，皆為雙向因果關係；餘屋與房價間呈現同向變動；各變數以房貸利率對房價的影響最高。

關鍵字

房價 ； 房貸 ； 餘屋 ； VAR模型

並列摘要

Under the influence of traditional culture and ideas, people of Taiwan mostly consider owning a house an important-even essential-part of life. Consequently, house price level has become a matter of concern to citizens, the society, and the government alike. Lin and Lin (2001) suggest that house price level should be determined by the supply and demand of housing. Accordingly, the present study investigates the supply (surplus houses) and demand (mortgage level) to verify their effects on house price level through the use of a vector autoregression model. The empirical results indicate that a two-way causal relationship exist between house price level and the total amount of mortgage lent by the five major banks in Taiwan, and between house price level and mortgage interest rate. Moreover, the number of surplus houses and house price level are positively correlated, and mortgage rate is the variable that influences house price levels the most.

並列關鍵字

house price ； mortgage ； surplus houses ； VAR model