房價指數與總體經濟對議價空間率受利率變化影響之探討

The Nonlinear Impact of House Price Index and Macroeconomics on Housing Bargaining Space Influenced by Interest Rate

王立閔(Li-Min Wang)

指導教授 ： 聶建中

淡江大學/商管學院/財務金融學系碩士班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00606

摘要

本研究以非線性平滑移轉模型探討房價指數與總體經濟變數對全國及六大都會區分別為新北市、台北市、桃竹地區、台中市、台南市及高雄市之房屋議價空間率之影響關係。並以五大行庫平均一年期定期存利率作為門檻變數，觀察利率在低於或高於各自門檻時，房價指數與總體經濟變數的變動如何對六大都會區與全國房屋議價空間率產生影響。
另外，本研究亦發現新北市、台北市、桃竹地區、高雄市及全國在利率低於各自門檻時，消費者物價指數對議價空間率的影響為一致的顯著正相關。而台中市與台南市亦呈現顯著正相關。顯示台灣近幾年在利率處於相對低檔與房價高漲下，物價持續的攀升，將是影響買屋民眾在購屋時與賣方議價的重要考量。同樣的問題於2017年仍然存在。所以買方在購屋時能以房價指數與總體經濟指標判定何時進入市場能有較好的議價力量。而賣方亦能參考房價指數與總體經濟指標在房屋議價上做出策略性的調整。

關鍵字

議價空間率 ； 總體經濟 ； 房價指數 ； 平滑移轉模型

並列摘要

This paper uses the non-linear smooth transition model to explore the relationship between the house price index and the macroeconomics on housing bargaining space in Xinbei City, Taipei City, Taizhou Region, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City and Nationwide respectively. And taking the average annual interest rate of certificate deposit of the five major banks as a threshold variable to observe how the changes in house price index and macroeconomic variables affect housing bargaining space of the six metropolitan area and Nationwide when interest rate below or above their respective threshold.
In addition, the study also finds the impact of the consumer price index on the bargaining space is significantly positive correlation between the Xinbei City, Taipei City, Taizhou Region, Kaohsiung City and the Nationwide when interest rate below their respective threshold. While Taichung City and Tainan City also show significant positive correlation. Indicating that recent year, Taiwan's interest rates is relatively low and house price is too high. Price of commodities continue to rise will be an important consideration for influencing the bargaining of buyers when buying houses with sellers. The same problem could still exist in 2017. So buyers can use the macroeconomic indicators to determine the time of purchasing house, and have a better bargaining power. The sellers can also refer to the macroeconomic indicators in the housing bargaining to make strategic adjustments.

並列關鍵字

Housing Bargaining Space ； Macroeconomics ； House Price Index ； Smooth Transition Model

參考文獻

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