美國川普與拜登政府推動北韓「無核化」策略分析

Analysis on U.S. Trump and Biden Administration's Policy Toward North Korean Denuclearization

陳蒿堯(Chen, Hae-Yao) ； 盧信吉(Lu, Hsin-Chi)

《韓國學報》 38期 (2023/01) Pp. 277-316

摘要

川普2017年就任總統後，宣告將不再採取歐巴馬時期對北韓的「戰略忍耐」（Strategic Patience）政策，而改運用軍事威嚇與經濟制裁等強制外交（coercive diplomacy）手段，輔以領導人峰會對話進行協商，施壓金正恩進行「無核化」談判，但歷經新加坡（2018年6月）與越南（2019年2月）兩次「川金會」後即再度陷入僵局。另一方面，拜登政府2021年1月上任以來，多次表示以朝鮮半島完全無核化目標，保持與北韓透過外交對話的彈性空間，惟因應方針上強調與川普時期採取「由上而下」領導人峰會與「大交易」的舉措有所不同，改採透過制裁和外交併行的「務實」方式（practic al approach），分階段逐步達成「無核化」的目標。本文由衝突預防（Conflict Prevention）的角度出發，聚焦美國由川普至現任拜登政府應對北韓問題的立場與相關作法，並闡述兩任政府為消彌朝鮮半島可能發生的危機與要求北韓落實「無核化」之衝突預防成效分析，進而點出美國與北韓「無核化」的談判困境與可能的情勢發展。

關鍵字

川普 ； 拜登 ； 金正恩 ； 極限施壓 ； 無核化談判 ； 朝鮮半島區域安全

並列摘要

When U.S. President Trump took office in 201 7, he announced that he would no longer adopt the "strategic pati ence" policy of the Obama administration toward North Korea, an d use coercive diplomacy such as military intimidation and econo mic sanctions instead, supplemented with bilateral dialogue of lead er summit to pressure Kim Jong-un for "denuclearization" negotiat ions. However, after two rounds of Trump-Kim summit in Singap ore (June 2018) and Vietnam (February 2019), the bilateral dialog ue deadlocked again. On the other hand, since Biden administration took office in Ja nuary 2021 and has repeatedly stated that he will keep the goal of complete denuclearization of Korean peninsula and maintain fle xibility of diplomatic dialogue with North Korea. President Biden insists that he would take different way from Trump; he will no t adopt from top to low leader summit with big deal, but he will take practical approach like combine sanctions and diplomacy, an d gradually achieves the goal of "denuclearization" step by step. This paper takes the perspective of conflict prevention and focu ses on the U.S. stance and related practices on the North Korean issue from Trump to the current Biden administration. In additio n, this paper would take conflict prevention perspective and polic y analysis on U.S. how to cool down the possible crisis of the K orean Peninsula and focus on the "denuclearization" policy of the two U.S. administrations, and then points out the negotiation dile mma and possible development.

並列關鍵字

Donald Trump ； Joe Biden ； Maximum Pressure ； Denuc learization Negotiation ； Regional Security of Korean Peninsula

參考文獻

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