1999－2019年宜蘭縣人口成長和產業結構轉變與北宜高速公路之關聯

本文主要目的為探討1999－2019年間宜蘭縣人口、產業、地價之變化與2006年通車的北宜高速公路之關聯。採用政府部門統計資料，分析人口之自然增加、社會增加判斷20年間人口成長與空間分布的變化趨勢，並透過區位商數解釋產業結構的變遷，以及由都市地價的變動探討各鄉鎮市發展的消長狀況。研究發現1999－2019年間宜蘭縣受到少子化、高齡化的影響使得人口自然增加率為負成長的趨勢；北宜高速公路通車減緩人口外移的趨勢帶來「時空收斂」的效果，宜蘭縣內部的人口分布也趨於分散符合了Friedmann「空間發展階段」中成熟階段所提及的平衡都市體系。產業結構雖沒有出現明顯的變化，但在行業別中以區位商數計算出「運輸、倉儲及通訊業」、「住宿及餐飲業」、「不動產業及租賃業」這三種行業在北宜高速公路通車後有明顯變動，尤其是「運輸、倉儲及通訊業」、「住宿及餐飲業」為穩定的發展，可以判斷對觀光相關產業有深遠影響。都市地價指數則呈現先下後上，依其變化趨勢劃分為三個階段：1998－2004年通車前黑暗期、2005－2013通車觀察期、2014－2019穩定成長期，但並非雨露均霑，其中以觀光業最發達的礁溪鄉成長最為顯著。

關鍵字

宜蘭縣；北宜高速公路；人口成長；產業結構；區位商數

並列摘要

The main purpose of this study is to discuss the relationship between the changes in Yilan County's population, industrial structure, and land prices and the Jiang Wei-shui Freeway from 1999 to 2019. This study uses the statistical data of government departments to analyze the natural increase and social increase of population, and to distinguish the changing trend of population growth and spatial distribution in the past 20 years. This study explains the changes in industrial structure through LQ(location quotient), and then discusses the change of land price in each township. The study found that from 1999 to 2019, negative trend of natural population growth rate in Yilan County was affected by the declining birthrate and aging population. Jiang Wei-shui Freeway slows down the trend of population outflow, and brings the effect of ＂space-time convergence＂. The population distribution within Yilan County also tends to disperse, in line with the balanced urban system mentioned in Friedmann's ＂Space Development Stage＂ in the mature stage. There have been obvious changes in tertiary industry of ＂transportation, storage and communications＂, ＂accommodation and food service activities＂, and ＂real estate and leasing activities＂ calculated by LQ. Especially, ＂transportation, storage and communications＂, ＂accommodation and food service activities＂ have developed steadily, which can be determine to have a profound effect on tourism-related industries. The urban land price index showed first down then up. It can be divided into three stages: the dark period before the opening to traffic in 1998-2004, the observation period of opening to traffic in 2005-2013, and the stable growth period in 2014-2019. And it is not equally allocation in Yilan County, Jiaoxi Township which has the most developed tourism industry, has the most significant growth.