台灣婦女生育率變動趨勢探討

本文針對台灣婦女生育率變動趨勢問題進行深入探討，分析總生育率與世代生育率的差異、預估1968－1982出生婦女世代生育率並提出因應對策。自1950年至今婦女主要生育年齡逐漸由20～29歲轉為25～34歲，生育年齡分配原為右偏，1986年後分配右移（平均生育年齡變大提高）變為常態分配，意謂女性平均生育年齡一直不斷往後推遲，主要原因來自於台灣經濟快速發展，女性受教育機會及工作機會增加。台灣婦女平均生育年齡經分段迴歸配適結果顯示在1977年以後每年約上升0.15歲，若此一趨勢保持不變，到了2020年將會上升至31.19歲；另根據變異係數變化趨勢顯示近年來生育年齡均集中在30－34歲。又，本研究利用1933－1962世代生育率的資料以指數模型結合灰色模型推算並預估1973－1977及1978－1982出生婦女世代（現約30－40歲）生育率大約分別為1.57及1.38，建議未來10年針對1985－1995年出生世代（現約18－28歲）即將進入生育高峰期的婦女能有養兒育女的打算並維持其生育率在1.3～1.5間（至少一半以上的家庭生育數在2以上）。

關鍵字

總生育率；世代生育率；指數模型；灰色模型；分段迴歸

並列摘要

The TFR (Total fertility rate) of Taiwan is the lowest in the world in 2010. In this study, we discuss the trend of fertility rate in recent 50 years, explore the difference between TFR and CFR (Cohort fertility rate), and predict the CFR of the 1968-1982 birth cohort female exquisitely. The summit of child-bearing age shifted gradually from 20-29 to 25-34 during 1950 to 2008 and its distribution changed from right skew to normal distribution after 1986. This postponed average child-bearing age for women is attributed to the rapid economics development of Taiwan causes the chance of women attending university and working opportunities increased. Piecewise regression method shows that the average child-bearing age is increased by 0.15 year per year, and it will reach 31.19 years old in 2020 if this trend keeps unchanged. Also, the trend of the coefficient of variation of child-bearing age concentrated in 30-34 years old in recent years. In addition, we use CFR data of 1933-1962 women birth cohort with Exponential and Grey model to project the CFR of 1973-1977 and 1978-1982 birth cohort are equal to 1.57 and 1.38 respectively. It is recommended that the most important issuses for the government is to encourage 1985-1995 birth cohort female to give birth and raise young during their child-bearing summit and maintained the fertility rate from 1.3 to 1.5 in the next 10 years.