國民旅遊境內消費的兩岸比較研究－因素分解法

Comparative Analysis of Tourism Expenditure inbound between Taiwan Strait Based on Factor Decomposition Method

林家茜 ； 董瑞人

《桃園創新學報》 32期 (2012/12) Pp. 399-412

https://doi.org/10.6989/JTI.201212.0399

摘要

國民旅遊境内消費量可以分解為四項因素（國内生産毛額，可支配所得分配比，縂消費傾向和旅遊消費傾向）組成的恒等式，本研究説明國内生産毛額因素對兩岸的旅遊境内消費具有相同意義，均為推動成長的第一動力。2008年前推動臺灣旅遊境内消費成長的第二因素是總消費傾向，其餘兩項（可支配所得分配比和旅遊消費傾向）則為限制因素。相對於臺灣，大陸的可支配所得分配比，總消費傾向和旅遊消費傾向三項均為限制因素。本研究同時說明，1994－2010年平均，每個居民旅遊消費量，臺灣為大陸的4.5倍；而就旅遊消費的總量而言，1994－2010年平均大陸是臺灣的15倍。每平方公里土地面積上所分配的旅遊消費，可視爲旅遊的環境負荷指標，兩岸比較結果，臺灣是大陸的二十倍。

關鍵字

因素分解法 ； 旅遊境内消費 ； 可支配所得 ； 旅遊消費傾向

並列摘要

This article compares resident tourism expenditures inbound in Taiwan and China, based on an analysis of Factor Decomposition Method. In this study resident tourism expenditures inbound is decomposed by four quantifiable factors, namely the GDP, ratio of disposable income to GDP consumption propensity and marginal consumption propensity of tourist. Analysis results show that the average tourism expenditures inbound per resident in Taiwan during 1995-2010 were four times as great as that of China ,the total tourism expenditures inbound in China were 13 times as great as that of Taiwan . 2010 the tourism expenditure elasticity of GDP in Taiwan was 0.778 and 0.556 in China. In 2010 the total resident tourism expenditures inbound of China reached at 2.83% of GDP, and Taiwan at 1.45%. This demonstrates that the growth of GDP was the first driving wheel promoting tourism expenditures and the ratio of GDP and disposable stood second forces. This paper contains three contents: Factor Decomposition Identity of tourism expenditures, Estimating Approach and Comparative Analysis.

並列關鍵字

Factor Decomposition Method ； Tourism ； Expenditures ； Disposable Income