美國亞太戰略下菲律賓對中國的策略－從避險視角分析

The Philippines' Strategy Toward China under the US Asia-Pacific Strategy-Analysis from the perspective of hedging

吳宜貞(Wu, Yi-Chen)

《發展與前瞻學報》 33期 (2021/09) Pp. 95-116

https://doi.org/10.6737/JDP.202109_(33).04

摘要

當前國際環境最大的議題與挑戰，就是美中競爭，由於近年來美國對中國的看法出現了根本的變化，面對中國的崛起，美國顯然採取了更強硬的回應，從「重返亞洲」（Pivot to Asia）、「亞太再平衡」（Rebalance to Asia），到「印太戰略」（Indo-Pacific strategy）。在這樣的國際大環境下，特別是東南亞地區的中小型國家，都被夾在美中的戰略競爭中。有鑑於此，東南亞地區國家普遍偏好選擇使用避險（hedging）策略，不在美中兩大強權之間選邊站。像菲律賓這樣具有特殊地緣政治性的中小型國家，在面對東南亞地區域權力分配不確定的情勢下，應對美「中」競合關係改變，菲律賓政府既不願因經濟依賴而扈從中國，亦不願與中國因南海主權爭議而抗衡中國，其整體的外交政策定是在避險策略中移動。因此，本文以菲律賓為例，在美國的亞太戰略下，從菲律賓對中國實施的政軍政策及經貿政策，探討菲律賓如何應用避險策略一方面在經濟外交上與中國交好，另一方面藉助美國在地區安全的主導權，謀取菲律賓國家經濟利益與地區安全的雙重保障。

關鍵字

重返亞洲 ； 亞太再平衡 ； 印太戰略 ； 地緣政治 ； 避險

並列摘要

The biggest issue and challenge in the current international environment are the competition between the United States and China. Due to fundamental changes in the United States' perception of China in recent years, facing the rise of China, the United States has apparently adopted a tougher response, ranging from ＂Pivot to Asia＂, ＂Rebalance to Asia＂, to ＂Indo-Pacific strategy＂. In such an international environment, especially small and medium-sized countries in Southeast Asia are caught in the strategic competition between the United States and China. In view of this, countries in Southeast Asia generally prefer to use the hedging strategy instead of taking sides between the two great powers of the United States and China. Facing with the uncertain power distribution in Southeast Asia, the small and medium-sized country with special geopolitics like Philippines responds to the changes about the competition and cooperation between the United States and China. The government in Philippines is neither willing to follow China due to the economic dependence, nor to compete with China due to the South China Sea sovereignty dispute. Its overall foreign policy must in the hedging strategy. Therefore, this article takes Philippines as an example. Under the Asia-Pacific strategy of the United States, the implementation of political and military policies and economic trade policies towards China from Philippines, it is discussed how Philippines can use the hedging strategy to make a good relationship with China in the economic diplomacy. On the other hand, with the help of the U.S. dominance in the regional security, it seeks the dual guarantee of Philippines's national economic interests and regional security.

並列關鍵字

Pivot to Asia ； Rebalance to Asia ； Indo-Pacific Strategy ； geopolitics ； hedging

參考文獻

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