由經濟成長、國防預算的角度探討中共航母艦隊發展對海軍軍事防禦能力之影響：系統動態學的應用

The Influenced of Navy's Aircraft Carrier Fleet Development of the PRC for Our Naval Defense Capability under Economic Growth and Defense Budget The Application of System Dynamics

洪國華 ； 賀增原 ； 林宛蒓

《海軍學術雙月刊》 51卷3期 (2017/06) Pp. 6-17

https://doi.org/10.6237/NPJ.201706_51(3).0001

摘要

一、中共在政治企圖旺盛與經濟持續發展的情形下，軍費自1990年起至今呈現逐漸增長。為了確保經濟成果的持續發展，海洋資源的獲得與海洋戰略的重要性日益提升，擁有多艘航母戰鬥群成為中國大陸邁向海上強權指標性意義。二、反觀我國卻面臨經濟負成長，國防預算規模逐年下降之窘境；考量臺海安全，中共迄今未放棄武力犯臺。面對兩岸軍事發展不平衡的挑戰，確實對我國海權造成莫大威脅。三、本文藉由系統動態模型建置與分析，透過我國與中共的經濟成長、國防預算的角度，探討中共航母艦隊發展對我國海軍軍事防禦能力之互動關係。模擬不同環境狀況，並觀察發展趨勢，輔以政策分析，做為未來擬訂戰略之參考。

關鍵字

航空母艦 ； 系統動態學 ； 風險管理

並列摘要

1. The military budget of the PRC has been gradually increase since 1990 under political ambition and economic development situation. It indicates China will toward the ocean power to possess more aircraft carrier battle groups in order to ensure sustained economic development outcomes under the increasing importance of acquire to marine resources and marine strategy. 2. Since our economy showed a negative growth and the military budget declining last few years. It does cause a great threat to our sea power for faceing with the imbalance challenges of cross-strait military development. So far, the PRC still has not given up aggressive military action to Taiwan considering the safety of the Taiwan Strait. 3. This paper discusses the relation between the development of the PRC aircraft carrier fleet and the military defense capabilities of our navy by using economic growth and defense budget to set up the modal of system dynamics. It can develop as a future reference strategy under simulating different environmental conditions, observed future trends, and supplemented with policy analysis.

並列關鍵字

aircraft carrier ； system dynamics ； risk management