習近平時期三屆「中央軍委成員」改組取向之研究

A Study on the Reorganization Orientation of the Membership of "Central Military Commission" in Three Sessions during Xi Jinping Period

陳津萍(Jin-Ping Chen) ； 吳玉芳(Yu-Fang Wu)

《軍事社會科學專刊》 22期 (2023/03) Pp. 31-58

https://doi.org/10.6915/PMSS.202303_(22).0003

摘要

中共領導人習近平已經歷三屆「中央軍委成員」的改組，可謂習意志的展現。本研究以文獻分析為方法，對軍委成員改組取向進行梳理。首先，習近平打破兩任10年的限制，以「能上能下」取代「七上八下」的潛規則，對大陸政局影響深遠。其次，軍委成員既已無任期制，對文職軍委副主席又無所著墨，全憑習近平的意志而行，將埋下內部權力鬥爭與政權不穩定的不可控因素，影響深遠。最後，從習近平時期三屆中央軍委成員在「能打勝仗」的背景分析中，軍委主席提名具實戰（軍演或非戰爭軍事行動）經驗與科技背景的將領為軍委成員，對於國防和軍隊現代化，武力犯臺能力，「二十大」其取向較「十八大」、「十九大」的成員能力更為顯著，具指標性意義。

關鍵字

中央軍委改組 ； 推進領導幹部能上能下規定 ； 軍委主席負責制 ； 強軍目標

並列摘要

This study uses literature analysis to sort out the reorganization orientation of the three "Central Military Commission" during Xi Jinping's period and combs through prioritized perspectives for cadre promotion. First, Xi Jinping broke the 10-year limit of two terms and replaced the unspoken rule of "seven up and eight down" with "up and down," which profoundly impacted the political situation of PRC. Secondly, since the members of the Military Commission have no term limit and there is no sight of a ununiformed vice chairman, meaning it will act according to Xi Jinping's will, sowing the seeds of internal power struggle and regime instability, which will have far-reaching effects. Finally, from the analysis of the " being able to win battles" of the third Central Military Commission members, Xi Jinping nominated generals with actual combat (military exercises or military operations other than war) experience and scientific and technological background as members of the Central Military Commission, focusing on national defense and military modernization, and the ability to invade Taiwan by force, which has indicative significance on the ability of members of the "The 20th National Congress of CCP" more than the "The 18th and 19th National Congress of CCP."

並列關鍵字

Reorganization of the Central Military Commission ； Promoting the Regulation that Leading Cadres Can Go Up and Down ； the Chairman assumes overall responsibility for the work of the CMC ； Strong Army Objective

參考文獻

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