從「權力平衡理論」析論美「中」南海戰略思維

An Analysis of America's and China's Strategies in the South China Sea from the Perspective of ＂Balance of Power Theory＂

鄭仁智(Cheng, Jen-Chih)

《展望與探索月刊》 16卷12期 (2018/12) Pp. 37-64

摘要

近些年，隨著中國大陸（以下簡稱大陸）綜合國力大幅提升，美國意識到其於亞太地區所形塑的國際秩序狀態逐漸失衡，權力天秤的重心不斷向大陸大陸這一崛起的強權傾斜，威脅美國在亞太地區，甚至其世界獨霸地位。尤以大陸在南海地區大肆擴張海權，處理與南海爭端國的強勢作為，更令美國惶惶不安，憂心有朝一日，南海成為大陸的「內海」，屆時意欲扭轉此一權力失衡狀態，恐為時已晚。檢視南海因其「半閉海」的特殊地形，復位居太平洋通往印度洋要衝，而賦予其在地緣政治上的重要地位，因緣際會成為美「中」兩國在亞太地區角力的競逐場域。本文試圖以「權力平衡理論」（The balance of power）為立基點，著重探討歐巴馬與川普政府，在南海地區對大陸所採取的壓制及圍堵戰略作為；並兼論大陸自習近平上臺後，如何有效運用各項戰略作為突圍，期能從美「中」的南海戰略思維中，一窺雙方於權力平衡過程中的勢力消長。

關鍵字

權利平衡 ； 失衡 ； 南海 ； 美「中」戰略思維

並列摘要

As China's comprehensive national power dramatically strengthened in recent years, the United States has realized that the international order in the Asia-Pacific region was out of balance. The power of balance seems to tilt towards Mainland China, threatening not only America's geopolitical power in the Asia Pacific region, but also its dominance in the world. In particular, China's vigorous expansion of maritime power and aggressively handling conflicts in the South China Sea made US uneasy. The US fears that the South China Sea may become part of Mainland China's ＂inland sea＂ someday, which may pose an irreversible imbalance of power in the future. The South China Sea, as a semi-enclosed sea, is located in a strategic hub linking Pacific and Indian Oceans. Because of its crucial geopolitical significance, the South China Sea has become a political wrangling field for the United States and China to control the Asia-Pacific region. This article adopts an approach of the ＂balance of power theory＂ and examines US suppression and containment strategies towards China in the South China Sea during Obama and Trump administrations. It further examines how Mainland China, after Xi Jinping took office, adopted effective break-through strategies in the South China Sea, and how balance of power shifts between US and China in the struggle for the control in the South China Sea.

並列關鍵字

Balance of Power ； Imbalance ； the South China Sea ； U.S.-China strategic thinking