Sanctions as Structural Shocks to Female Participation in Iran-Examination of the JCPOA and the Maximum Pressure Policy

Sahand E.P. Faez

《展望與探索月刊》 20卷5期 (2022/05) Pp. 49-103

摘要

In simplest terms sanctions could be considered as to the refusal of one state or a group of states to have any interaction with another state or a group of states. The sanctioning agents are considered as senders and the ones being sanctioned are considered as receivers. Sanctions, as peaceful alternatives for military conflict, take place so that the receiver states would comply with the demands of the sender states. The most common reasons for sanctioning a state are either to prevent them from developing Weapons of Mass Destruction or to push them towards more respect for human rights. However, similar to any other policy, sanctions have some unwanted spillover effects. These effects could be in form of higher poverty, lower participation, or higher inequalities. They are more severe in states whose governments are less reliant on taxes or public support for survival. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent of such unintended outcomes. In order to do so, the status of female participation in Iran's labor market is analyzed using a Quantile-on-Quantile regression model which takes age and income as the quantiles. Afterwards, using the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the Maximum Pressure Policy (MPP) as turning points, they are included in the model as dummy variables. The JCPOA is 0 for before its signature in 2015 and 1 for after the agreement. The MPP is 1 for after the Trump administration left the agreement in 2017 and 0 for before the policy. The data for the study are extracted from Iran's Household Income-Expenditure Survey which is an annual survey covering more than 170,000 individuals' demographic, employment, income and expenditure features. The time span is the period of 2013-2019 which covers the two shocks under study.

關鍵字

Sanctions ； Effectiveness ； Policy Assessment ； Quantile-on-Quantile Regression