基于影响因素选择的中国对外直接投资区位分布风险研究－基于“一带一路＂沿线52国实证分析

Research on the Influencing Factors, Location Selection and Risk of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment--Based on the Empirical Analysis of 52 Countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂

徐家庆(XU Jiaqing) ； 张清玥(Zhang Qingyue)

《社会科学理论与实践》 3卷4期 (2021/10) Pp. 1-19

https://doi.org/10.6914/tpss.030401

摘要

本文以“一带一路＂沿线52国数据为基础，通过构建面板随机效应模型，对影响中国对外直接投资（OFDI）区位选择的因素进行了实证研究，结果表明：相关影响因素的作用机制符合OFDI理论预测的一般性规律，如东道国发展水平对中国OFDI具有显著促进作用的因素；但也存在着“一带一路＂沿线国家的特殊性，GDP、东道国工业化程度对中国OFDI具有负向效应的因素；此外，还有影响因素在不同类型国家模型中表现出了截然相反的作用机制。在对上述特殊性进行分析基础上，文章对中国OFDI在“一带一路＂沿线国家存量分布进行了统计并发现：中国OFDI主要集中在没有与中国签订FTA的国家及伙伴关系级别较低的国家，由此导致中国OFDI面临较大的政治、经济与安全风险。最后文章提出从政产学研协作，加强对沿线国家的风险研究；发展和维护与“一带一路＂沿线国家的良好双边关系；完善中国出口信用保险制度，提升信用保障水平等对策建议。

關鍵字

区位选择 ； 一带一路 ； OFDI ； 风险

並列摘要

In this paper, we analyzed the data of 52 countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂ by applying the panel random effects model, and explored the influencing factors of Chinese foreign direct investment location choice, and on the basis, analyzed the risk of Chinese foreign direct investment. The empirical results show that the quality of labor force in the host countries, the investment in fixed assets, the degree of opening up, the participation in the multilateral and bilateral mechanisms, and the bilateral relations have a significant facilitating role on Chinese foreign direct investment. However, the degree of industrialization in the host countries and the distance between Beijing and capitals of other countries have a negative effect on Chinese foreign direct investment. In order to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese multinational investment enterprises and effectively prevent the risks of output foreign investment, we should take the following measures: Government, industry, university and research institutions should mutual collaborate, and strengthen the research on countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂; We should develop and maintain good bilateral relations with countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂; We should improve Chinese export credit insurance system and improve the level of risk protection.

並列關鍵字

Location Choice ； The Belt and Road ； OFDI ； Risk