TESTABILITY OF INTELLIGENT DESIGN ARGUMENT IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF QUANTITATIVE METHODOLOGY

由定量方法看智慧設計論證的可驗證性

余創豪(Yu Chong-ho)

《建道學刊》 20期 (2003/07) Pp. 89-102

摘要

Renowned philosopher of biology Elliott Sober argues that some hypotheses defended by creationists are testable, yet auxiliary assumptions associated with the intelligent design argument cannot be evaluated. Sober states that judging by the current status and the pace of progress of creationism, it is doubtful whether creationism can be treated as a serious scientific research program. Further, based on Fisher's likelihood principle, Sober argues against the probabilistic inference suggested by the design hypothesis. This paper argues that the testing procedure and the probabilistic inference for the intelligent design hypothesis conform to the standards of quantitative research methodology. Moreover, if the evaluation of research progress is centered on how well the design argument is articulated, creationism indeed is dynamic and progressive. Other arguments given by Sober are also examined.

並列摘要

著名生物學哲學家索伯（Elliott Sober）主張，雖然有些創造論者的假說可以被驗證，但是有關智慧設計論證（Intelligent design argument）的輔助性假設卻無法被衡量。索伯認為，由創造論的目前處境和進度來判斷，到底創造論能否被當為嚴肅的科學研究計劃，實在是一個疑問；再者，基於費沙可能性原則（Fisher's likelihood principle），索伯反駁設計假設提議的或然率推論。本文提出，智慧設計假設的驗證程序和或然率推論，是符合定量研究方法準則的，再者，若果評估研究進度，是集中於設計論證如何清晰陳述，那創造論事實上是充滿動力和進展的。本文亦詳細討論索伯的論證。