The Dilemma of China's Belt and Road Project and Domestic Economy Strategy After the 20^(th) National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

Wei-Hao Huang

《Taiwan Strategists》 16期 (2022/12) Pp. 31-47

摘要

China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under conditions of a thriving domestic economy and a friendly international environment. The BRI serves to redirect domestic money surplus, upgrade dated industries, and rebuild the prestige of China as a great power. However, today's environment of global finance is different from when China first unveiled the BRI. This article reviews the future development of the BRI from the following dimensions: (1) the shadow of China's domestic economy, (2) a weak renminbi against the U.S. dollar, and (3) rising tensions in Sino-U.S. relations. These factors will significantly increase the cost of implementing BRI in China and reduce the benefits. After the 20^(th) National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the above conditions continued to burden the BRI. As Xi and its new leadership persist in the BRI, it will be a more challenging dilemma for China and his BRI to resolve in the 2020s than a decade ago.

關鍵字

China's Economic Policy ； Belt-Road Initiative ； Foreign-Exchange Reserves ； USD Exchange Rate ； Internationalization of RMB