中國大陸「一帶一路」政策之研究

本研究對「一帶一路」（Belt and Road Initiative）發展戰略有著極大興趣，因為其為1978年11月中國大陸確定改革開放後，首個跨國經濟構想，深具指標性意義。迄今，在國際社會皆深憂中國崛起現象之際，透過該政策觀察其對未來發展的追求與佈局，應是很好的分析視角。本論文首先採用大衛．伊斯頓（David Easton）的系統理論（System Theory）為分析架構，再結合互賴理論（Interdependence Theory）來觀察中國大陸推出的「一帶一路」政策，是如何主導與影響國際政經體系。其次，綜述中共中央總書記、國家主席、中央軍委主席習近平提出「一帶一路」政策之國內外發展背景與環境因素，並說明該政策的總體目標，以及中國大陸當局如何以「五通」（政策溝通、設施聯通、貿易暢通、資金融通、民心相通）作為核心內涵推動建設。再者，耙梳政策規劃與政策合法化兩大政策制定流程，就「一帶一路」具體政策內容（一帶、一路、資金配置、合作機制）進行析論，且探究政府與企業在政策執行的實況。接著，以「一帶一路國際合作高峰論壇」、中國人民大學、美國企業公共政策研究所及《中國一帶一路網》所公布之研究報告和成果清單為基礎，進行政策評估並提出本研究的推論，同時探討「一帶一路」政策的預期效益與對其國內、國際及臺灣的影響；最後，提出本論文的研究發現與後續研究建議。

關鍵字

一帶一路；絲綢之路經濟帶； 21世紀海上絲綢之路；系統理論；互賴理論；經濟外交

並列摘要

The development strategy of the Belt and Road Initiative is of great interest in this study. As the first transnational economic concept following China’s reform and opening-up in November 1978, it possesses representative significance. So far, while the world is deeply concerned about the rise of China, observing the pursuit and layout of future development through the policy should be a good analytic perspective. In this paper, the systems theory by David Easton was first adopted as the analytic framework. Then the interdependence theory was conjunctively used to observe how the “Belt and Road Initiative” policy launched by China leads and affects the international political economy system. Secondly, the domestic and foreign development backgrounds and environmental factors of the “Belt and Road Initiative” proposed by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), were summarized. The overall objectives of the policy and how the Chinese authorities employed the “Five-pronged approach” (namely policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and strengthened people-to-people ties) as the core connotation for promoting construction were described. Furthermore, two policy formulation processes, policy planning and policy legalization, were sorted; the specific policy contents of the “Belt and Road Initiative” (belt, road, fund allocation, cooperation mechanism) were analyzed and discussed. The actual situations of policy implementation by the government and corporations were also explored. Subsequently, the research reports and list of results released by “The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation”, the Renmin University of China, the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), and the Belt and Road Portal (www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn) were also used as the basis for policy evaluation and research inferences. At the same time, the expected benefits of the “Belt and Road Initiative” policy and its effects on the country, the world, and Taiwan were also explored. Finally, the research findings in this paper and recommendations for follow-up studies were put forward.