都市內夏季用電分布與微氣候之關聯以台北市為例

Pattern of Electricity Consumption in Summer with respect to Microclimate in Taipei city

陳柏宇(Po-Yu Chen)

指導教授 ： 莊振義

國立臺灣大學/理學院/氣候變遷與永續發展國際學位學程/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202002398

摘要

氣候變遷以及城市發展下，為了兼顧生活福祉，城市內用電以及冷氣需求將大幅提升，進而衍伸能源管理問題。其中，冷氣耗電與天氣變化高度相關，若能剖析冷氣用電與小尺度區域間天氣變化之關聯，將有助改善能源效率，落實節能減碳。
台北市區含都市熱島效應、建築以及環山與河流等，即便面積不大，仍形塑不同微氣候。因此作為本研究對象。本研究聚焦於台北市中心內夏季工作日間白天電力消費與微氣候(天氣)之關聯，透過台北市都會區內30個變電所時負載資料、中央氣象局之局屬測站、自動測站以及台北市校園氣象站資料與建築樓高、面積資料進行探討。
透過基於Ordinary Least Square Estimation的簡單線性回歸，以溫度為變數，變電所電力資料為應變數之線性關係，產生斜率，截距以及相關係數。得出區域內，日間電力負載變化與氣溫變化均呈高度正相關。進一步分別以酷熱指數Heat Index與熱負荷Heat Stress概念轉化氣溫，修正回歸模型後，各變電站周邊之相關係數均以不同幅度提升，再與前者比較得出濕度效應與熱累積效應之影響。同時得出區域間電力消費中隨氣溫變化之占比，作為冷氣節能討論依據。
最後結論得出：一、研究區域範圍不大，區域內的隨用電變化之於天氣變化敏感度仍有明顯差異；二、列入濕度以及積溫效應等因素後可使線性關係提升；三、將上述結果分別以文獻理論基礎討論其與形塑都市微氣候差異之都市樣態間的關係，其中以樓高影響最為顯著，與電力消費酷熱指數關係斜率成正相關，並與冷氣用量占比與積溫效應呈負相關。最後，區域間各點對氣溫變化產出之不同用電特性，可結合開放平台，供能源管理問題中各利害關係人做利用。

關鍵字

夏季用電 ； 冷氣負載 ； 能源管理 ； 都市微氣候 ； 熱累積效應 ； 都市樣態

並列摘要

In the issue of climate change and urban development, in order to confirm living quality, the demand for electricity and air-conditioning in the city will be greatly increased, which will lead to energy management problems. Among them, power consumption of air-conditioning (AC) is highly correlated with weather changes. Once relationship between air-conditioning power consumption and weather changes in small-scale areas is analyzed, it will help improve energy efficiency and implement energy conservation as well as carbon reduction.
The urban area of Taipei contains different type of buildings community, and mountains and rivers. Even if the area is not wide, different microclimates including urban heat island are shaped. This study focuses on the relationship between electricity consumption (EC) and microclimate (weather) during the summer working day in the center of Taipei City, through the electric load data of 30 substations in the metropolitan area, the weather station of the Central Meteorological Bureau and Taipei Elementary school Meteorological Station, and the building morphology data.
Assuming the linear relationship between weather parameter as a variable and substation power data as dependent variable through simple linear regression based on Ordinary Least Square Estimation, slope, intercept and correlation coefficient are produced. It is concluded that the daytime power load changes and temperature changes are highly positively correlated. Further, the temperature was transformed with the concepts of the Heat Index (HI) and Heat Stress respectively. After the regression model was modified, the correlation coefficients of each pairing group were increased by different levels, and the effects of humidity and heat accumulation were obtained by comparing with the former. At the same time, the proportion of power consumption that varies with temperature in the inter-regional electricity consumption is obtained, which is used as the basis for the discussion of air-conditioning energy conservation.
Finally, it is concluded that 1. within the study area, the sensitivity of changes in electricity consumption to weather changes could vary place from place. 2. Considering humidity effect and cumulation effect could result a more linear relationship. 3. Above results are discussed on the basis of literature theory and the relationship between urban morphology that shape the microclimate differences of the cities, and the results shows significance with building height (BH). Positive relationship is found between BH and the slope while negative relationship is found between ACEC contribution. The different power consumption characteristics by weather parameter of the region could be then organized and be a base of an open platform for various stakeholders in energy management issues.

並列關鍵字

Summer electricity consumption ； cooling load ； energy management ； urban microclimate ； cumulation effect ； urban morphology

參考文獻

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