空間規劃因應氣候變遷之權衡取捨與綜效之研究─以台北都會區為例

Trade-off and Synergy of Spatial Planning in response to Climate Change:A Case Study of Taipei Metropolitan Region

李柏均(Bo-Jiun Lee)

指導教授 ： 黃書禮

共同指導教授 ： 葉佳宗

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/都市計劃研究所/碩士(2013年)

摘要

隨著全球氣變遷的現象與影響日益明顯，空間規劃在邁向低氣候風險與低碳的未來為扮演很重要的角色。國際及許多國家政府亦紛紛投入推動各種減緩與調適氣候變遷的策略。然而，城市氣候策略的不落實與其他社會問題或經濟競爭力等目標互動存在著密切的關係，這些互動可能導致實施的權衡取捨或綜效作用。
基於上述之背景，本研究藉由STELLA軟體之運用，建立一套評估台北都會區因應氣候變遷之系統動態模型。探討各政策的模擬變動對台北都會區區域發展的作用與影響程度外，是否亦能產生氣候變遷減緩與調適作用，並從中瞭解所產生權衡取捨與綜效之關係趨勢，進而得到台北都會區較妥善的空間政策規劃方案。
本研究進行五個政策的模擬分析：順勢發展、限制發展區政策、農地保護政策、人口總量限制政策、強調緊密城市政策，其結果顯示這些政策並非均為雙贏的策略，因為每個政策於不同目標中至少產生一個(以上)之負面結果，顯然各情境的實施皆有其優缺點，而台北都會區要兼顧達到區域發展並能響應氣候變遷，權衡取捨(trade off)的結果將是無可避免的，故最後到底採用何種情境之空間規劃，則將視執政者與民眾希望在未來得到何種生活型態與對台北都會區期望而定。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 空間規劃 ； 權衡取捨 ； 綜效 ； 系統動態

並列摘要

Nowadays, the climate has been changing gradually. Spatial planning starts to access to low-climate risk and low-carbon in the future will play an important role. Many countries and governments around the world begin to dedicate themselves to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies that can resolve the problem of climate change. However, the policies about the climate are not implemented in the city. And these policies have a close relationship between social issues and economic competitiveness. This relationship and interaction may lead to trade-off and synergy to be carried out.
According to the statements above, this research uses STELLA software to build a set of system dynamic model which can make the response to climate change in Taipei Metropolitan Region. In addition to study simulated variation and the effect upon the regional development of Taipei Metropolitan Region, we should realize whether climate change can be prevented and be retarded. From these strategies, we will know the trend of trade-offs and synergies, and then improve the spatial planning for Taipei Metropolitan Region.
The research has a simulated analysis of five policies: a do-nothing scenario, a restriction on developing area policy, a farmland protection policy, a limited population policy, a compact city policy. The results show that they are not win-win strategies. Because of having different goals on each policy, they will cause one and more negative consequence. Obviously, every situation of its implementation has its own advantages and disadvantages. Trade-offs will remain unavoidable, and the city needs to make a choice to balance regional development and climate change. Therefore, what kind of spatial planning they adapt from depends on what kind of lifestyle the governor and the citizens want.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change ； Spatial Planning ； Trade-off ； Synergy ； System dynamics

參考文獻

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