賽局理論應用於建設公司採購策略之研究-以金屬帷幕牆採購案為例

大型土地開發案過程冗長，考驗著開發商籌資與財務槓桿的操控能力。工程採購是成本控制極重要的一環。經營者絞盡腦汁在土地取得上，但在處理工程採購決標時，卻習於依過往經驗憑直覺或依人情來做決策，大多著重於價格廝殺而忽略專案特性與廠商履約及專業技術的能力，與歐、美、日大型企業重視長期利益與品牌經營的策略大異其趣。為達最低價目標，在喊價過程常輕易的更動履約涵蓋範圍與技術要求，自認為守住成本，殊不知稍有不慎，輕則付出工程銜接的高成本，重則廠商無力履約導致整體工期延宕或舉訟互告。完工遙遙無期，產品無法如期交付，衍生龐大的融資利息、稅金和利害關係人補償費等等，既損公司聲譽與利潤又損及股東權益。現代建築設計日新月異，新工法新建材的運用，已非傳統採購方式一體適用。都會區地狹人稠，建築物不斷挑戰新高度，新穎的外觀造型更是不斷挑戰工藝難度。加上都會區施工腹地受限，缺工缺料情形不斷攀升，半數以上工作能於工廠預製預組的超高層鋼構帷幕牆建築形式儼然已成為趨勢。本研究透過實際參與建設公司超高層建築群樓之金屬帷幕牆工程採購案，藉由歸納整理前輩學者的文獻資料和個案觀察、記錄、分析、整合之研究方式，運用賽局理論研擬各階段策略，以達到相關目的: (1)整合內外部技術資源與規劃檢討分析，確實精準規劃與施工檢討，以達到工廠優良精密加工之品質與工地施工之順暢。 (2)議價策略輔助運用賽局理論以理性決策方式，尋得最適宜的專業廠商，提供最佳履約條件和最低的價格，達到利潤最大化之預期目標。 (3)以個案參與執行之實證過程與成果，提供業界於工程採購理性決策時之方法與選擇參考等。每個開發案背後集結了眾佼佼者的智慧與心血，也是一群無名英雄的血汗與貢獻。大型土地開發案所動用的人力、物力、財力，猶如戰場般須前置稠密的計畫，與戰場不同的是--戰爭帶來毀滅，而新開發案大多是帶來繁榮與便捷。雖然規劃設計在於開發案是重要的，但設計再偉大，終究需要實踐才能讓其得以傳頌，不然也僅是紙上富貴浮夢一場。工程採購即是規劃到實踐間的巧手，絕佳的採購是工程成功的開始。模糊不清的採購即是工程惡夢的開端。本研究在採購主體爭端拉鋸開始實際介入，透過前期與各專責單位訪談討論釐清所發生之採購項目差異、主要材料規範不清、規劃尚在變更與調整等的問題，重新檢視整體進度尚有近一年時間可就金屬帷幕牆工程的細部規劃委託專業顧問進行研討以訂定相關之書圖規範、數量、項目與規格。同時運用賽局不完全訊息動態決策樹，在採購主體之重要環節協助經營管理層峰理性決策。在整合內外部技術資源與一百三十七場次數百小時的規劃檢討分析，結合各相關專家的逐層逐項研討和施工檢討，為使近百分之九十的工廠加工得到最精密優良的品質與未來工地施工的順暢。在邀商與議價中，運用各經驗策略和實際訪廠方式評估，在最後議價階段輔以賽局理論中動態賽局之「勝利組合」談判模式取得最終之均衡，而能在金屬帷幕牆專業顧問提出書圖文件後的短短二個月內，為本案擇選出最適宜的專業廠商，樽節百分之四十七之預算成本以及涵蓋最佳的履約條件，達到利潤最大化之預期目標。

關鍵字

賽局；工程採購；整合

並列摘要

The long process of large-scale land development that tests the ability of developers to raise funds and control financial. Engineering project procurement is an extremely important part of cost control. Property developer and entrepreneur actively acquire the land. However, when dealing with engineering project procurement tender, they are accustomed to making decisions based on past experience, intuition or favor. And most of them focus on price competition and ignore the project specification, the contractor’s professional technology skill, and the ability to fulfill the contract. It is very different from the strategy of large enterprises in Europe, the United States and Japan that attaches great importance to long-term benefits and brand management. In order to achieve the lowest price target, it is often easy to change the contract coverage and technical requirements during the bidding process. Entrepreneurs think that it is to save costs. But they don't know if they are not careful, they will pay more high cost for connection works, or the contractor will not be able to complete the contract. The overall construction schedule was delayed or lawsuits. The products cannot be complete and handover on schedule, resulting in huge loss for financing interests, taxes, compensation costs for stakeholders, etc., which the company's reputation, profits, and shareholders' equity. Modern architectural design is progress with the times. The new construction methods and new building materials has been applied to non-traditional procurement methods. The metropolitan building working area is narrow and crowded. The buildings are constantly challenging new heights and craftsmanship. The labor is shortage and the materials cost is rise. The trend of the super high-rise steel construction with curtain wall which the most of parts prefabricate in the factory. In this case study, through the actual participation in the construction of the company's the metal curtain wall of super high-rise building engineering project procurement case, by summarizing the literature of former scholars and predecessors and the research methods of case observation, recording, analysis, and integration, and using the game theory develop strategies for each stage to achieve related goals: (1) Integrate internal and external technical resources and planning review and analysis to ensure accurate planning and construction review to achieve the high quality of factory precision machining and smooth construction on site. (2) The bargaining strategy is supplemented by the use of game theory and rational decision-making to find the most suitable professional contractor, provide the best performance conditions and the lowest price, and achieve the goal of maximizing expected profits. (3) Participate in the empirical process and results of the implementation of individual cases, and provide the industry with the method and selection reference for rational decision-making in engineering procurement. Each land development project is behind the wisdom and hard work of the outstanding colleagues and partners, as well as the sweat and contributions of a group of unsung heroes. The resource of the manpower, equipment, and finance used in the large-scale land development projects are like battlefields that require intensive planning. Unlike battlefields, wars bring destruction, while new development projects mostly bring prosperity and convenience. The planning is important in architectural development projects. However, no matter how great a design is, it must be practiced before it can be passed on. Otherwise, it is just a dream. This research started to actually intervene in the disputes of procurement subjects. Through interviews and discussions with various special units, the differences in procurement projects, unclear specifications of main materials, and plans are still being changed and adjusted, etc., and re-examined the overall progress. Have one year can entrust professional consultants of metal curtain wall engineering to discuss detailed planning and engineering specifications, quantities. Meanwhile applications the dynamic decision tree of incomplete information of the game. Assist the management to make rational decisions in aspects of the procurement entity. After 137 meetings and hundreds of hours of experts in planning, research and discussion, integrating internal and external technical resources and construction review. For the unitized curtain wall project, nearly 90% of the factory processing can obtain the most precise and excellent quality and get the good site construction work. In inviting third-party contractors and negotiating prices, using various experience strategies and actual factory visits to evaluate. In the final negotiation stage, the "winner-set" negotiation mode in dynamic game theory is used to achieve the final equilibrium. Only two months after the professional consultant of unit metal curtain wall submitted specification and planning drawings. The most suitable professional contractor was selected for the case. Save nearly 47% on budget costs and cover the best conditions. Achieve the goal of maximizing expected profits.

並列關鍵字

Game Theory ； Engineering Project Procurement ； Integration

參考文獻

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