肥料價差補貼措施對臺灣農家的農業收入之影響

Impact of Fertilizer Deficiency Payment on Farm Household Revenue in Taiwan

王恬滋(Tien-Tzu Wang)

指導教授 ： 陳郁蕙

共同指導教授 ： 孫立群

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.10183

摘要

2007-2008年間發生金融海嘯，國際油價物價的飆漲，使得國內肥料價格波動劇烈，在農民不堪負荷的反彈聲浪下，政府於2008年5月底實施肥料價差補貼措施，價差補貼國內17種化學肥料的價格，以確保農民福祉與穩定農業生產。本研究利用行政院主計處調查之2005與2010的農牧戶普查的資料，將資料進行整理後採取差異中之差異法(Difference-in-Difference)做實證分析，依據資料特性進行分組，選取慣行農戶為實驗組，不使用化學肥料與農藥的農戶為控制組，並且利用2005年與2010年做為政策實施前與政策實施後之資料，估計肥料價差補貼後對於臺灣農家農業收入之影響。首先，將所有農戶進行實證分析，研究肥料價差補貼對於所有農戶的影響。其次，擷取稻米農戶、雜糧農戶、蔬菜農戶、果樹農戶、花卉農戶以及特用作物農戶，分開探討各種類農戶在肥料價差補貼實施後，農家的農業收入之情形。
實證結果顯示對於所有作物的農戶而言，肥料價差補貼之政策效果十分顯著，但是分開探討各別作物農戶後，卻發現政策效果不明顯，甚至在果樹農戶中出現負向的影響。另一方面，估計結果顯示指揮者性別為男性對於農業收入的影響較大；隨年齡的增長會對農業收入有負向的影響；指揮者工作日數與農業收入正相關係；指揮者的教育程度越高，對於農業收入的影響幅度越大；農戶人口數越多則對於農業收入有較顯著之影響，且滿15歲以上的人口對於農業收入較有影響力；農戶為專業或兼業也顯著影響農業收入；地區變數顯示不同地區對於農業收入有顯著的影響；天氣變數的估計結果在每個作物農戶中有所差異，但皆顯著影響農業收入；最後，作物面積則與農業收入有顯著正相關。

關鍵字

肥料價差補貼措施 ； 差異中之差異法 ； 農家農業收入

並列摘要

Due to the financial crisis of 2007-08, raw materials price increased worldwide, and caused the fluctuation in fertilizer price in Taiwan. In order to assure the welfare of farmers, and stabilize the farm production, Taiwan’s government implemented Farm Deficiency Payment in May, 2008. Data use in this study was sourced from 2005 and 2010 Taiwan’s Agricultural Census. Difference-in-Difference approach was adopted in this paper to estimate the impact of Fertilizer Deficiency Payment on farm household revenue in Taiwan. We assigned the conventional farming households the treatment group, and both fertilizer-free and pesticide-free households as the control group. By measuring the difference between the treatment and control group overtime, we can carry out the policy effect. In this paper, we will analysis not only the policy effect for all farm households but also the policy effect in various types of the farm households such as rice, grain, vegetable, fruit, flower, and special crop farm households.
The empirical results showed significant policy effect for all farm households. However, the policy effects for specific types of the farm households are not significant, and even found a negative policy effect for fruit farm households. On the other hand, the results suggested male farm operator has a higher impact on farm revenue; higher operator age has a negative impact on farm household revenue; working days have a positive relation with farm household revenue; higher education has a greater influence on farm household revenue; larger farm household population has more significant impact on farm revenue, full-time or part-time farm households significantly impact farm revenue; regions have various significant impact on farm household revenue; and finally, the cultivate area and weather have significant influence on farm household revenue.

並列關鍵字

Fertilizer Deficiency Payment ； Difference-in-Difference ； Farm Household Revenue

參考文獻

行政院農業委員會，1994-2014。『農業統計年報』。台北：行政院農業委員會。

行政院農業委員會，1997-2014。『農業統計年報』。台北：行政院農業委員會。

行政院農業委員會，2001-2014。『農業統計年報』。台北：行政院農業委員會。

行政院農業委員會，2004-2014。『農業統計年報』。台北：行政院農業委員會。

尚瑞國、郭迺鋒，2003。「財政短絀、肥料換穀制度與臺灣戰後初期之經濟發展－1954年12部門個體結構型CGE模型分析」，『農業經濟半年刊』。74期，23-61。