台灣再生能源動態蘊藏量評估與供電模式分析

Dynamical reserve assessments and power supply schemes of the renewable energy of Taiwan

熊正揚(Cheng-Yang Hsiung)

指導教授 ： 陳發林

國立臺灣大學/工學院/應用力學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.00496

摘要

台灣的能源需求由國外進口的比例高達99.2％，長期缺乏能源自主權的情況下，高排碳的發電結構也將成為未來不利於我國經濟發展的重大阻礙。因此，發展具有潔淨、低排碳的再生能源，成為台灣刻不容緩的重要課題。本研究根據現有的資料加以分析，重新評估台灣各項再生能源的可開發蘊藏量，在空間的分類基礎上，同時針對不同時間的蘊藏量加以評估。空間部分，除四大地區與離島之分類外，波浪能、潮汐能、亦列出以縣市為單位之可開發蘊藏量，太陽能、生質能、陸域風能更劃分出各鄉鎮市區之蘊藏量；時間部分，除了一般常見的裝置潛力、年發電量估算，各月波動、尖峰日逐時以及每月逐時皆為呈現數據之分劃方法。本研究建構出完整的再生能源電能供給與需求模型。
細究其各地區之供需模型發現，北部地區之多數月份皆供不應求；南部地區與東部地區再生能源電能供應較為穩定，應能自給自足；中部地區與澎湖縣雖每月之蘊藏量皆高於用電量，但兩者於冬季與夏季的差值具有相當大的落差。針對2011年尖峰日(8月18日)的供需情形，本研究亦估算出各地區之供需情形。北部地區與南部地區，因夏天主要電能來源為太陽能，故深夜的離峰時間供給遠低於需求；中部地區雖有離岸風能補充太陽能半日發電之不足，但因高度的不穩定性，導致供給亦無法逐時滿足需求。即便將全國視為單一系統，於部份時間仍有相當大的電能缺口，因此，須將大型的儲能系統納入發電規劃之考量。
最後，進一步針對太陽能、陸域風能、離岸風能與波浪能四種再生能源，估算出不同月份之逐時供需情形，並規劃出符合逐時電能供需條件之多項方案。其中，較可行的開發方案為方案9，各種再生能源於本研究的開發比例分別為太陽能48.9%、陸域風能100%、離岸風能24%、波浪能21.7%，所需最小裝置容量之儲能系統為抽蓄水力裝置潛力的11.7倍。

關鍵字

台灣 ； 再生能源 ； 蘊藏量 ； 評估 ； 供電模式

並列摘要

In Taiwan, 99.2 % of energy supply relies on imports. Lacking for the independence of energy, the power generation structure of high carbon emissions will crucially hinder the economic development in the future. For this reason, to develop clean, low carbon emissions and renewable energies becomes the most important and urgent task. Based on the analysis of public information, this research reevaluates reserves of various renewable energies in Taiwan and categorizes the assessments as four regions and offshore islands. In addition, hydropower, wave energy and tidal energy are listed under counties and cities. Solar power, biomass energy, and onshore wind energy are classified as townships, villages and districts. Meanwhile, with the data such as the potential of installed power, the amount of yearly electricity, monthly fluctuation, hourly analysis of peak day, the research builds a complete model of renewable energy supply and demand.
According to the detailed analysis of the models in all regions, the demand in the northern region exceeds the supply at the most of time. The south and east have relatively stable and sufficient supply of renewable energy. Although there is always energy surplus in the center and Penghu region, the amount of electricity has extreme differences between winter and summer. Furthermore, the research discusses the issue of energy supply-demand on the peak day of 2011 (18th, August) in all regions. For instance, in the north and south the supply was insufficient for the demand during the off-peak hours even though the solar power actually provides the majority of electricity in these areas during the summer. Also, the power deficiency happened in the center due to the unstable offshore wind energy. In this case, no matter how to distribute the electricity, by regions or an union system, the energy supply-demand might still be unbalance sometimes. For this reason, to develop an enormous system of energy storage becomes necessary for the future plans of electric generation.
At the end of the research, especially focusing on solar power, wave energy, offshore and onshore energy, there are ten scenarios based on hourly supply-demand in every month. Among them, the scenario number 9 offers the most practicable plan. For example, the best developing distributions of the four renewable energy types include 48.9% of solar power, 100% of onshore wind energy, 24% of offshore wind energy, and 21.7% of wave energy. Moreover, the minimum capacity of energy storage system should be 11.7 times pumped storage power plants.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan ； Renewable Energy ； Reserves ； Assessment ； Power supply scheme

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