「修昔底德陷阱」的補充性研究：以現代日本為例

在中國的崛起與中美關係的惡化的背景下，艾利森（Graham Tillett Allison）提出了「修昔底德陷阱」的論點。「修昔底德陷阱」分析了16個案例，但其中現代與亞洲案例各只有兩個。當代中美關係是國際關係上的一個主要問題。為了解決這個問題並且對世界和平做出貢獻，本研究試圖用現代日本案例來補充「修昔底德陷阱」。這些案例分別是，冷戰期間的日蘇關係、20世紀下半葉的美日關係以及1989年以來的中日關係。歷史背景顯示了這些兩國之間的競爭關係。該研究從定量的角度衡量經濟實力與軍事力量，並討論了權力轉移或權力平衡的重大變化。其中，各種資料也顯示了領導人和人民如何看待權力轉移與權力平衡的重大變化。即使在現代，既存強權會直接或間接的對與它們有競爭關係的崛起強權在外交政策上作出消極反應。儘管所有現代日本案例都有領土爭端，這些案例都避免了戰爭。在「修昔底德陷阱」的案例中，二戰後的兩個案例都沒有發生戰爭。經研究發現，1946年後，既存強權與崛起強權的競爭關係之間顯然不太可能發生戰爭。就「修昔底德陷阱」而言，近代與現代之間存在著一個分水嶺。不僅是在西方，在亞洲也是如此。我們可以說萬曆朝鮮之役、明清交替和鴉片戰爭來看，亞洲經歷過由權力平衡的變化所爆發的戰爭。「修昔底德陷阱」是根據縱軸（時間）而不是橫軸（區域）變化的。1946年後，「修昔底德陷阱」幾乎沒有發揮作用了，因此美國與中國之間很可能發生戰爭的結論應予修正。此外，本研究為未來的補充性研究提供了一個參考，透過分析現代日本的案例提示了當代中美關係和平發展的前景。

關鍵字

修昔底德陷阱；權力轉移；蘇日關係；美日關係；中日關係

並列摘要

With the rise of China, the relationship between China and the United States has also deteriorated. Against this backdrop, Graham Tillett Allison proposes the theory of Thucydides’ Trap, which analyzes 16 cases with only two of them being modern. In addition, this theory has only two Asian cases, which is a major drawback in the analysis of contemporary U.S.-China relations. To solve this problem and contribute to world peace, this study attempts to supplement Thucydides’ Trap with post-war Japanese cases, including Japan-USSR relations during the Cold War, US-Japan relations in the second half of the 20th century, and China-Japan relations since 1989. The historical background reveals the competitive relationship between these pairs of countries. This study measures economic and military power from a quantitative perspective and discusses major changes in the transfer of power. The various materials used show how leaders and people perceive power transition and major changes in the balance of power. Even in contemporary history, a ruling power reacts with passivity in foreign policy, either directly or indirectly, to another with which it is in a competitive relationship. Although all contemporary Japanese cases involve territorial disputes, they have nevertheless avoided war. In the case of Thucydides’ Trap, neither of the two post-World War II cases led to war. Studies found that it was clear after 1946 that war was unlikely to occur due to the rivalry between the ruling and rising powers. In terms of Thucydides’ Trap, a division exists between modern and contemporary times. This is true not only in the West but also in Asia, which can be said to have experienced wars caused by changes in the balance of power as seen in the Imjin War, the Ming-Qing transition, and the Opium War. After 1946, however, Thucydides’ Trap seems to have lost its efficacy, so the conclusion that the war between the United States and China is likely should be revised. Furthermore, with the analysis of contemporary Japanese cases, this study provides a reference for relevant research in the future and implies prospects of peace in contemporary U.S.-China relations.