- 學位論文
長短期直接金融與間接金融互動關係之探討
The Study of the Interaction of Long-Term and Short-Term Direct Finance and Indirect Finance
摘要
本文主要目的在探討企業依其本身條件及需求，於衡量資金成本及取得難易程度下，如何選擇最適的長、短期直接金融與間接金融，是以針對各種金融間的互動進行驗證。同時也探討央行執行貨幣政策及政府舉債融通，對長、短期直接金融與間接金融的影響。 研究架構上，先對各種金融進行因果關係檢定，並以VAR模型來驗證各種金融的互動關係，然後再就各種金融對其他總體變數做迴歸分析，並據此探討央行的貨幣政策效果及政府舉債產生的金融排擠效果。本研究利用單根檢定、Granger因果檢定、向量自我迴歸模型等計量方法建立實證模型。 實證結果所獲得的重要結論如下： 1.各種金融間的互動關係：就全體金融而言，以長、短期區分，長期金融領先短期金融；就個別金融而言，長期直接金融最具領先性，而短期直接金融則落後於所有其他的金融。在私部門金融中，以長、短期區分，私部門長期金融領先短期金融；就個別金融而言，私部門長期間接金融最具領先性，而私部門短期直接金融則落後於所有其他金融。 2.影響長期、短期直接金融與間接金融的因素：短期直接金融受銀行放款利率、M2餘額負向影響，受票券市場利率正向影響；短期間接金融則受股價指數正向影響。長期直接金融受銀行放款利率、銀行新承做資本支出放款的負向影響，受票券市場利率的正向影響，且受春節因素的負向影響；長期間接金融則受銀行放款利率的負向影響，受票券市場利率、銀行新承做資本支出放款的正向影響。 3.貨幣政策效果與金融排擠效果：就貨幣政策效果而言，央行的貨幣政策對私部門長期間接金融呈現顯著正向影響，顯示央行採取寬鬆貨幣政策，將會擴張私部門長期間接金融。就金融排擠效果而言，政府發行公債融通預算赤字，對私部門各種金融的影響皆不顯著。
並列摘要
This paper investigates how business chooses the best capital policy based on its conditions and demand, under the concerns of capital cost and degree of difficulties. Hence, we verify the interaction among all kinds of financial behavior, furthermore, investigating how governmental monetary and debt policy affect long-term and short-term direct finance and indirect finance. About the research mechanism, we examine the causality test between all kinds of financial factors at first, then do the VAR test to verify the interaction among them, and use the regression test to examine effects on other macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, we investigate effects on governmental monetary policy and expenditure due to public debt policy. The empirical model is derived from the quantitative method such as Unit Root Test, Granger Causality Test, Vector Autoregression Model. Following conclusions can be drawn from this empirical result: 1. Interaction among all kinds of financial behaviors: For the entire financial system, in terms of the time period, long-term finance leads short-term finance; in terms of the unitary financial system, long-term direct finance leads others and short-term direct finance lags behind. For the private finance, in terms of the time period, long-term private finance leads short-term private finance; in terms of unitary financial system, however, long-term private indirect finance leads others and short-term private direct finance lags behind. 2. Factors affecting long-term and short-term direct finance and indirect finance: Short-term direct finance is negatively impacted by increasing of loan rate and M2, but is positively impacted by short-term bills rate. Short-term indirect finance is positively impacted by Stock Price Index. Long-term direct finance is negatively impacted by loan rate and the amount of capital expenditure loan, but is positively impacted by short-term bills rate, however, the Chinese New Year’s holiday negatively affects the long-term direct finance. Long-term indirect finance is negatively impacted by loan rate and positively impacted by short-term bills rate and capital expenditure loan. 3. Government monetary policy effect and crowding out effect: In terms of the monetary policy, long-term private indirect finance is negatively impacted by central bank’s monetary policy, which shows that the loose monetary policy will long-term private indirect finance. In terms of crowding out effect, there is no significant relationship between public debt and private finance.