從韌性威權到民主賦權：中國民眾價值觀的世代差異與政治支持

From Resilient Authoritarianism to Democratic Empowerment: Generational Difference and Political Support in China

吳振嘉(Jack Chen-chia Wu)

指導教授 ： 張佑宗 ； 朱雲漢

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/博士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.00567

摘要

改革開放30年後，因為經濟的成功，中國逐漸邁入現代化國家的水平，可是對於中國未來發展的討論仍然方興未艾，威權韌性？中國模式？亦或是民主化？本文想要探討的問題是，中國延遲民主化的真正因素為何？未來的中國仍然可以維持現有政權型式，拒絕民主化過程嗎？不同於政治菁英的分析角度，本文從社會大眾意見出發，強調世代差異與價值觀變遷對於政治發展的影響。
在中國政治文化研究的案例上，本文主張中國社會存在著競爭性價值觀 (傳統儒家價值觀與現代民主價值觀)，改革開放使得中國民眾的價值觀結構發生變遷，其特點是「70後」與「80後」新世代具有民主價值觀的群體大幅增加，這是從經濟賦權進而價值賦權的過程。
其次，中國新世代的政治支持因為價值觀差異而發生分歧，具有較高民主價值以及低儒家價值的民眾，其政治信任與制度正當性都較其他類型的價值觀群體更低。更重要的是，民主價值觀者做為關鍵群體，對於政權機構的信任明顯低於儒家價值觀與混合價值觀的群體。從這個結果，我們可以認為從文化賦權到制度賦權的中介條件之一，政治信任的分歧，明顯地正在新世代中發生。
不過，雖然價值觀變遷正在影響中國的政治支持，並使其發生分歧，可是這種價值觀變遷對於政治參與及民主支持都尚未產生直接的關聯。其中，政治參與的增加與社會矛盾的發生較有關聯。而民主支持的問題可能是因為我們尚無法有效地加以測量。針對中國民眾的價值觀如何影響未來政治發展，我們需要更多的研究來重新理解。

關鍵字

中國民主化 ； 世代差異 ； 價值觀變遷

並列摘要

After 30 years of reform and opening up, economic success has gradually modernized China. However, there are still many theories about how China will develop in the future. Authoritarian resilience? The China Model? Or, democratization? This article tries to uncover the factors that have delayed China’s democratization. Will China maintain its current regime type and reject democratization in the future? In contrast to the focus of other studies on political elites, this article instead looks at ordinary citizens, and looks at the effect of generational difference and value change on political development.
As a case study on political culture in China, this study argues that there competing values in Chinese society (traditional Confucian values and modern democratic values). The reform and opening up caused the value structure in Chinese society to change. In particular, in the “1970s” and “1980s” generations, there has been a large increase in the number of citizens holding democratic values, indicating a transformation from economic empowerment to empowerment on the dimension of values.
In addition, political support among the younger generation varies according values. Citizens with high levels of democratic values and lower levels of Confucian values have lower levels political trust and institutional legitimacy than citizens with different value orientations. More importantly, citizens with democratic values had significantly lower of trust in the government than those with Confucian values and mixed values. From this result, we argue that cultural empowerment is a mediating value in institutional empowerment. Differences in political trust have clearly emerged in the new generation.
However, although value change influences political support in China, and has produced cleavages within society, these value changes are not directly linked to political participation and support for democracy. We found that increases in political participation and incidence of social conflicts are linked. However, perhaps due to a lack of effective ways to measure the concept, we could not find a direct link with support for democracy. With regard to the influence of values among Chinese citizens on future political development, further research is needed to deepen our understanding.

並列關鍵字

generational difference ； value change

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