電動公車與柴油公車成本與經濟特性之研究

Cost Structure and Economic Characteristics of Electric Bus and Diesel Bus

張仲誼(Chung-I Chang)

指導教授 ： 張學孔

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202202299

摘要

因應氣候變遷與環境汙染議題，各國無不推出各項政策期望能夠將能源、工業、運輸、農業、住房等部門引導邁向碳淨零的未來。針對交通運輸與相關產業部門，我國提出2030年全國客運公車全面電動化的政策，期望能夠於2030年將1.5萬輛柴油公車汰換為電動公車，以降低交通業的碳排量，同時提供大眾更友善、乾淨和環保的運輸選擇。然而審視我國目前所擁有的電動公車數量，截至2022年2月，我國僅約有787輛電動公車，以既定公車客運全面電動化目標以及發展路徑觀之，顯然公車電動化政策仍然有需要努力的空間。本研究則以各方關切、涉及永續發展之成本特性為標的，藉由蒐集業者實際營運資料，分別建立電動公車與柴油公車Translog成本函數模型，再利用模型校估結果剖析兩者成本與相關經濟特性的差異，並提出適當建議以及營運策略供做主管機關與相關產業之參考。
研究結果顯示目前電動公車車公里總成本仍然高於柴油公車，但若加入政府對於電動公車的補助將使電動公車成本低於柴油公車。利用要素交叉彈性得知，電動公車資本要素與能源要素具有顯著互補性，而柴油公車要素使用較具僵固性。此外電動公車與柴油公車現時皆處於規模經濟階段，可以透過擴張規模，降低其平均成本。研究中之敏感度分析顯示，以增加10%總行駛里程情境來看，電動公車平均車公里成本減少3.496元，與原成本相比約減少5.918%；若增加柴油公車規模10%，其平均成本約下降1.689元，僅較原始情境成本減少約3.170%。因此對於業者來說，若要擴張其車隊規模，選擇電動公車優勢較大，同時也較符合政策及環境趨勢。
本研究亦基於永續經營的理念探討「電池租賃模式」的可行性以及其帶來的效益，研究發現該營運模式不僅能夠有效降低電動公車初期購置成本，且同時能夠降低其車公里平均成本，並發現若考慮未來單位電池價格下降，電池租賃費用將隨之下降，採用電池租賃模式，改善效益越顯著。本研究成果可做為主管機關、生產業者以及公車經營業者在政策規劃與產業策略研議之參考。

關鍵字

電動公車 ； 柴油公車 ； Translog成本函數 ； 經濟特性 ； 電池租賃模式

並列摘要

In response to the issues of climate change and environmental pollution, all countries have launched various policies to guide energy, industry, transportation, agriculture, housing and other sectors towards a net-zero carbon future. For transportation sector, our country has proposed a policy which is expected that 15,000 diesel buses will be replaced by electric buses in 2030, so as to reduce the carbon emissions of the transportation industry and provide eco-friendly public transportation services. However, there are only 787 electric buses operated in Taiwan until February 2022. Based on the established goal of comprehensive electrification of bus transportation and the development path, it is clear that the policy of electric buses still needs more efforts. This study focuses on the cost characteristics of various parties concerned and involves sustainable development. By collecting the actual operation data from the operator, it establishes the Translog cost function models of electric buses and diesel buses respectively, and then uses the model calibration results to analyze the cost and correlation between the two. Differences in economic characteristics, and put forward appropriate suggestions and business strategies for the reference of authorities and related industries.
The study results show that the total cost per vehicle kilometer of electric buses is still higher than that of diesel buses, but if the government subsidy for electric buses is added, the cost of electric buses will be lower than that of diesel buses. Using the cross price elasticity of demand, we know that the capital factor and energy factor of electric bus are significantly complementary, while the use of diesel bus factor is relatively rigid. In addition, both electric buses and diesel buses are currently in the stage of economies of scale, which can reduce their average costs by expanding their scale. The sensitivity analysis in the study shows that in the case of increasing the total mileage by 10%, the average vehicle-kilometer cost of electric buses is reduced by 3.496 NTD/vkm, which is about 5.918% lower than the original cost; if the scale of diesel buses is increased by 10%, its average cost decrease about 1.689 NTD/vkm, only about 3.170% less than the original scenario cost. Therefore, for operators, if they want to expand their fleet size, choosing electric buses has a greater advantage, and it is also more in line with policy and environmental trends.
This study also discusses the feasibility and benefits of the "battery leasing mode" based on the concept of sustainable operation. The results finds that this operating mode can not only effectively reduce the initial purchase cost of electric buses, but also reduce the average cost per vehicle kilometer. And it is found that if the unit battery price decline in the future is considered, the battery leasing cost will decrease accordingly, and the battery leasing mode will improve the benefit more significantly. The study results can be used as a reference for the authorities, manufacturers and bus operators in policy planning and strategy research.

並列關鍵字

Electric Bus ； Diesel Bus ； Translog Cost Function ； Economic Characteristics ； Battery Leasing Mode

參考文獻

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