- 學位論文
台灣車輛電動化的潛在市場與影響
Potential market and environmental impacts of vehicle electrification in Taiwan
摘要
運輸部門的多方面挑戰皆源自於對化石燃料的仰賴所導致，而機動化加劇了傳統能源使用對環境造成的負面影響。目前車輛電氣化被視為實踐永續道路運輸的最佳途徑之一，但從傳統燃料向替代燃料的綠色轉型，需要有一系統系的技術經濟模型，來了解當地政策如何幫助先進車輛技術的使用和發展，以及提供未來的策略擬定建議。因此，本研究針對臺灣的道路車輛系統開發了一個完整的預測模型，該模型能夠執行能源和排放性能分析：通過車輛數量、行駛距離、燃油效率以及燃料使用來量化道路運輸對環境的影響；並綜合多種不確定性因素，對模型的預測值推估其發生的機率分布。模型預測到2040年，所有類別的四輪運具的潛在保有量為928萬輛（低推估894萬輛；高推估963 萬輛）。雖然台灣的私人乘用車保有量將持續增加至2040年的825萬輛，但年銷售量從2025年到2040年，將會在39.6萬輛至43.9萬輛之間波動。本論文同時開發並採用生命週期運輸模型GREET-TW（針對台灣的溫室氣體、管制排放和能源使用）來反映在地的能源/燃料生產路徑。通過情景分析，模型評估了潛在的汽車電動化政策對台灣私家車部門的能源消耗、溫室氣體和空氣污染排放的影響。與無全面禁售燃油車的情景相比（即2040年全年銷售的所有車輛仍將是汽油或柴油動力的），到2040年所有新車銷售電氣化將使年溫室氣體排放量減少31%；模型也指出只有將內燃機汽車禁售與電網再生能源比例提高相結合，台灣才有可能實現《溫室氣體減量及管理法》中的減排目標。此外，論文還表明，在2040年完全淘汰內燃機汽車的銷售將減少大部分的空氣污染排放，但由於台灣發電的火力發電占比高達七成，此政策反而會顯著增加硫氧化物的排放。本文在估計未來道路運輸的空間分佈和環境影響時，考慮了各縣市的社會經濟差異性以及縣市之間的電力傳輸。
並列摘要
The multi-faceted challenges of a road transportation system are deeply rooted in fossil fuel use and are compounded by private motorization. It is of timely importance to design a new mobility system oriented towards a shift from conventional fuels to alternative, low-carbon options. Achieving sustainable ground transportation is possible, but this requires the consolidation of techno-economic and environmental modeling. This thesis develops a robust system-wide vehicle fleet model for on-road vehicle fleet turnover, energy consumption, and emission performance analysis in Taiwan. By incorporating multiple uncertainties, the model projects a range of possible future outcomes: 9.28 million (low of 8.94 million; high of 9.63 million vehicles) in 2040. While Taiwan’s private passenger vehicle stock will keep increasing to 8.25 million by 2040, the annual sales will be oscillating between 396 thousand and 439 thousand from 2025 to 2040. A life-cycle transportation model, GREET-TW (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation-Taiwan), is developed and adopted to reflect energy/fuel production pathways in Taiwan. By conducting a scenario analysis, this work evaluates the well-to-wheel (WTW) impacts of potential electric vehicle (EV) policies on energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG), and air pollution emissions of the Taiwanese private vehicle sector. Compared to the No Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Ban Scenario, (i.e., all the vehicles sold throughout 2040 will still be gasoline- or diesel-powered), electrifying all the new vehicle sales by 2040 would reduce annual WTW GHG by 31%. Notice that only by combining the ICE bans and a cleaner electric grid could Taiwan possibly achieve the regulatory GHG mitigation targets. Moreover, the thesis shows that while completely phasing out the sales of ICE vehicles by 2040 would reduce most of the air pollution emissions, it would increase SOx emissions remarkably because of the low deployment of clean power generation. The socioeconomic differences in various counties and intercounty electricity transmission are examined and taken into account when estimating the spatial distributions of future vehicle stock and environmental impacts in this thesis.
參考文獻
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