中國發展戰略空軍的理論與實踐(1991-2021)：攻勢現實主義的評估

中國儘管擁有排名世界第三的核武庫存，但長久以來因為缺乏可靠的戰略空軍武力，使得「核武鐵三角」未能完整成型，也使得兵力投射能力受到限制。因此，中國除了在蘇聯解體後數度向俄羅斯及烏克蘭採購戰略轟炸機外，也採行多個「五年計畫」、「軍民融合戰略」以及「千人計畫」試圖提升本國發展戰略空軍的能量。本文以攻勢現實主義作為研究途徑，並回顧美國、蘇聯與解體後的俄羅斯、英國以及法國建立戰略空軍的經驗，探討中國發展戰略空軍的可能路徑。本文發現試圖改變現狀並推動「亞洲門羅主義」的中國，將會依循美、俄模式發展戰略空軍，而作為離岸平衡者的美國，除了強化美軍在區域的部署外，也會增強印太相關國家的空防力量，甚至從科技、產業領域阻止中國取得關鍵技術以作為反制。

關鍵字

中國人民解放軍；攻勢現實主義；戰略空軍；戰略轟炸機

並列摘要

As the third nuclear arsenal holder in the world, China’s insufficient strategic air power limits its ability to form a complete “nuclear triad” and restraints its capability of power projection. After seeking purchase strategic bomber and refused by Russia for years, China implemented “Civil Military Fusion,” “Thousands Talents Plan,” The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan to improve its capacity in development a strategic air force. There are several aims of this study. First, explore the possible development of China’s strategic air force using Offensive Realism as the study approach. Second, conduct an extensive literature review on the development of strategic air force in the U.S., U.S.S.R. and its successor Russia, United Kingdom, and France. Third, predict the impact of China’s strategic air force to the development of air defence among contries in Indo-pacific region. The conclusion of current research is that the Indo-pacific countries will enhance their air defence capabilities, in response to the rapid growth of China’s military power. As an offshore balancer, the US will not only reinforce the regional deployment, but will also prohibit China from accessing key information in business and technology industries.