初次上市櫃承銷價之評估-以台灣生技公司為例

生技醫療產業具備高度專業且無形資產比重較高等特性，致難以評估其真實價值。本文針對台灣新上市上櫃生技醫藥類股，以營業收入之特定倍數代替負的現金流量，透過不同之預估營收成長率及營業收入倍數組合模擬得出承銷價，並與各生技公司當初上市櫃時之真實承銷價相比，以衡量其折溢價情形。本研究發現，生技醫療類股上市平均期初報酬率為45.11%，顯著高於其他產業；製藥產業之模擬價格於預估營收成長率較高(25%至50%)，且醫療器材及應用生技產業之模擬價格於預估營收成長率較低(5%至20%)時，較現行承銷價更能收斂至未來股價，其間接證實，本模型採用之方式對於醫療器材及應用生技產業承銷價訂定具有參考價值。未來研究可朝模型優化或提出更適當之評價方式等方向努力。

關鍵字

生技醫療類股；承銷價；低估；現金流量折現法；實質選擇權法

並列摘要

Biotechnology industry being highly professional with high proportion of intangible assets possession makes it difficult to be priced accurately. This paper target on biotechnology company Initial Public Offerings pricing. Substitute negative cash flow with certain multiple of operating income, and through modeling different revenue growth rate and the multiple of operating income to get model price. Compare the model price within every condition with real offering price to see whether the model price can better converge to real trading price. This research shows biotechnology stocks average initial return 45.11%，which is significantly higher than other industries. As result, model price performance surpass offering price when the growth rate estimation range from 25% to 50% in Pharmaceutical industry and 5% to 20% in Medical equipment and Applied Biotechnology industry. All of the above indirectly prove that the model mentioned in this paper has reference value for setting the underwriting price of biotechnology industry. Model optimization or propose more appropriate pricing methods are directions recommended for further work.