選舉課責與經濟投票對德國政黨政治的意涵及影響

The Significance and Influence of Electoral Accountability and Economic Voting for German Political Parties

王贊焜(Tzann-Kuen Wang)

指導教授 ： 陳顯武

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.10808

摘要

「選舉課責」與「經濟投票」是觀察執政成敗的一個重要評估面向，也是選民依據執政者的作為，評斷是否會在下次的選舉中給予持續支持、或者給予懲罰，亦即當過去的經濟表現好（或不好）時，選民會在下次選舉時投票支持（或反對）執政黨，並且以GDP經濟成長率與失業率的經濟能力表現和選舉結果進行初步比對，藉以觀察經濟投票及選舉課責的情況是否存在。本論文藉由量化與質性分析，觀察最近兩屆中央聯邦議會暨聯邦總理選舉結果，以及最近兩年內（2011~2013年）、尤其自「後311」以來的地方市邦「期中選舉」選情分析，以論述選舉結果之最新民意變化趨勢，並作綜合說明。

關鍵字

經濟投票 ； 選舉課責 ； 聯邦議會選舉 ； 地方市邦議會選舉 ； 經濟能力表現

並列摘要

“Electoral Accountability” and “Economic Voting” have observed power for the success or failure of an important assessment-oriented, also as voters according to the ruler's judgment whether to give continued support, or punished in the next election, that is, when the past economic performance was good (or bad), the voters will vote in the next election, and support for (or against) the ruling party, and preliminary comparison of the performance and results of the election to the economic capacity of the GDP economic growth rate and unemployment rate, in order to observe the economic voting and electoral accountability exists. This thesis tried to make quantitative and qualitative research analysis to observe the 16th and 17th federal elections as well as results of the federal chancellor elections. Besides, the state elections as “Mid-Term Elections” within last two years of 2011 till 2013, especially “The Post 311”, have also been perceived to discuss the election results of the latest public opinion trends and to make comprehensive descriptions as well.

並列關鍵字

Economic Voting ； Electoral Accountability ； Federal Elections (Bundestagswahlen) ； State Elections (Landtagswahlen) ； Economic Performance

參考文獻

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Rudzio, Wolfgang. 2006, Das Politische System der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, 7., aktualisierte und erweiterte Auflage, VS Verlag fur Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden.

Sontheimer, Kurt, Wilhelm Bleek und Andrea Gawrich. 2007, Grundzuge des politischen Systems der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Piper Verlag GmbH, Munchen.

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