永續消費導向之產業政策規劃-以鋼鐵業為例

Developing a Planning Framework for Sustainable Consumption-Oriented Industry Strategy- A Case Study of Taiwan Iron and Steel Industry

張新珮(Hsin-Pei Chang)

指導教授 ： 馬鴻文

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.02148

摘要

產業政策之規劃及評估需通盤考量經濟、社會及環境等因素，綜合選定優質之發展方案。鋼鐵業屬高耗能高污染產業，且產業關聯性高，在國內屬關鍵之發展工業，並且受限於台灣境內無鋼鐵原料生產，檢視台灣鉅量之鋼鐵使用情形實屬必要，觀察其消費量時發現，2007年年度總產量為全球第十二位，人均消費量更達世界第四強。循著消費量削減，以去物質化觀念而始，藉由對於產品消費型態的選擇而使該物質使用情形更趨環境友善化，將去物質化的概念與永續消費行為作一直接連結。
本研究以投入產出分析做為解構國內經濟體系內消費行為之工具，配合主計處最新發布之2006年產業關聯表，依據國內對鋼鐵之消費特性進行產業分類，建立2006年鋼鐵業之實物型投入產出表，可結合於物質流分析符合其質量平衡原則，對鋼鐵業做各行業之物量使用盤查。連結貨幣單位之投入產出表後，建置混合單位投入產出表，接續後端對整體經濟體系的消費量分析。
研究結果首先提供以產業關聯表盤查之各行業鋼鐵直接使用量，非鋼鐵金屬業之鋼鐵使用量最高，佔當年度整體產量26.59%。若使用投入產出表逆行列矩陣(I-A)-1計算消費行為在經過整體波及效果後之間接鋼鐵使用量後，得知民生消費類別中以交通業之最終需求產生之波及使用量最高，產業中間使用為鋼鐵業、非鋼鐵金屬業及機械設備業，營建工程業以住宅工程為最，藉此初步得知2006年度之關鍵鋼鐵用量產業。接著解構關鍵產業之最終需求組成，將之拆解為民生消費、政府消費、固定資本形成、輸出等項目，發現鋼品之產出有很大一部分是為了供給鋼鐵業、非鋼鐵金屬業之輸出需求，機械設備業及住宅工程乃為了滿足其固定資本形成需求，其中交通業屬民間消費量較能影響之產業。而計算衍生係數能篩選出政策較具影響力之產業，以交通業中之船舶、其他金屬業、營造工程等較高。分析各業之環境衝擊後，仍以非鋼鐵金屬業，鋼鐵業、機械設備業及交通業等產業之環境衝擊較高。綜合以上數據，篩選出在情境設定中境內民間消費政策可及之關鍵產業：住宅工程及交通業。
將研究結果之消費分析與傳統消費分析做比較對照後發現，傳統消費分析僅能以各年度總量之時間序列資料提供使用量預測，且無法拆解產業之使用改變對整體產量之影響。使用產業關聯表分析，能以國內產業消費端之需求結構提供預測，並以最終需求結構及產業端提供產量變動預測分析。綜觀國內最終需求項目中，消費負荷量最高為支持輸出之需求，人均消費達1.16噸/人。
在境內消費情境模擬結果部分，去物質化永續交通政策依據交通部運輸研究所政策針對小客車與機車等私人運具做消費削減模擬，能削減之鋼鐵產量可回饋國內整體鋼鐵產量2.04%及0.86%削減；住宅政策依據經建會政策針對住宅房屋做消費削減模擬，能有效削減鋼鐵產量達8.62%，表示鋼鐵業在住宅工程之政策運用影響性確對鋼鐵產量有實質之具體減量影響。

關鍵字

鋼鐵業 ； 產業政策 ； 去物質化 ； 永續消費 ； 實物型投入產出表 ； 混合型投入產出表

並列摘要

To develop a planning framework for industrial strategy should consider economical, social and environmental factors. Iron and steel industry is a crucial industry because it is energy intensive, highly polluting and of high industrial linkage, and there is lack of iron ore in Taiwan. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the iron and steel usage in Taiwan. The amount of consumption of iron and steel in Taiwan was the 12th, and the amount of per capita consumption was the 4th in the world in 2007. To achieve the reduction of consumption and the concept of dematerialization by selecting proper consumption patterns enhancing environmental friendly usage of material, concept of dematerialization and sustainable consumer behavior can be realized.
This study used Input-Output Tables as a tool to analysis of consumption behavior in the domestic economy, with the latest release of the 2006 I-O tables and the COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose ) to establish the steel industry physical input-output tables in 2006. Physical input-output tables could provide the material flow analysis by balancing the iron and steel mass usage of every industry in Taiwan. By combing it with the monetary input-output tables, we can also establish “hybrid-unit input-output tables” to analyze the consumption behavior over all the economic system.
According to the inventory of the direct use quantity of all industries from physical input-output tables, the highest one is non-iron and steel metal industry, with a proportion of about 26.59%.From the analysis of hybrid-unit input-output tables including the coefficients, the highest proportion of private consumption part is transportation industry; for the industrial application part, iron and steel industry, non-iron and steel industry and mechanical equipment industry are the greatest; for the construction part, the residential building construction industry is the most important. Decomposing final demand of those key industries of using iron and steel, we found that export plays a great role of driving the iron and steel industry, and the non-iron and steel metal industry. Private consumption derives largely from usage of transport industry and fixed capital formation depends greatly on residential building construction industry. Considering the environmental impact, the following industries have been identified as crucial industries: iron and steel, non-iron and steel metal, mechanical equipment and transport industry.
Compared with the traditional analysis of consumption, this study can predict the flow of iron and steel resulting from industrial consumption behavior by using I/O tables. It is found that a great part of iron and steel consumption, per capita consumption 1.16kg is to meet the need of export,which is the largest part of final demand in the I/O table.
In the part of policy simulation of domestic consumption scenarios, transportation policy with reducing the quantity of motor vehicles and motorcycles can bring about to the reductions of iron and steel output by 2.04 %and 0.86%, respectively. Reducing the consumption of residential building construction can reduce iron and steel output by about 8.62%, indicates the influence of the building policy on the control of the iron and steel output.

並列關鍵字

iron and steel ； industry strategy ； dematerialization ； sustainable consumption ； physical input-output tables ； hybrid-unit input output tables

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