強權對避險者的政策回應分析： 以中越中韓關係為例(1998-2018)

Analyzing Great Power’s Policy Response to the Hedging countries: Taking Sino-Korea and Sino-Vietnamese Relations as Examples (1998-2018)

李思慧(Si-Hui Li)

指導教授 ： 張登及

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202103854

摘要

多數研究聚焦於中小型國家如何運用避險政策於強權間縱橫捭闔，本文聚焦於中國對周邊國家避險者避險政策之反應，如政治上、經濟上往來，並佐以非物質性因素如出訪、孔子學院設立等建立中國對避險政策反應之指標。
本研究發現中國對南韓和越南政策回應有所差異，中國回應南韓避險時，須考慮朝鮮半島上北韓關鍵因素，北韓的存續實際上讓美中在東亞區域互動得以緩和，若中美皆放任南北韓敵對樣態持續下去，則美方容易使北韓更推往中國，中國也將失去得來不易的南韓盟友，影響中國東亞區域布局；中國回應越南避險亦須考量兩國歷史遺緒，在政治經濟體制上較為相似，使得中國期待越南走往中國預設的道路，又越南至今出口仍以第一級產業為主，與中國漸漸發展二三級產業出口有所不同，根本性產業性質差異導致不同出口策略，也使得中國難以和越南在經貿議題上達成戰略同盟。

關鍵字

避險 ； 中國外交 ； 中韓關係 ； 中越關係

並列摘要

Most research focus that how middle or small countries make use of hedging polices to negotiate with great power countries. This thesis focuses on China’s reaction to surrounding countries’ hedging policies, such as political and economic interaction. In addition, the thesis uses other non-material factors to establish the indicators of China’s reaction to hedging policies, such as foreign visits or Confucius institutes.
The research discovers that China’s policies response to South Korea and Vietnam are different. China must consider to key factors of North Korea on Korean Peninsula. Therefore, the continuous existence of North Korea in fact alleviates the United States interaction with China in East Asia region. If the U.S. and China let the hostile situation between North Korea and South Korea continues to grow, the U.S. might push North Korea toward to China. China’s friendship with South Korea which is not easy to earn might also get lost. It will eventually influence China’s overall arrangement in East Asia. China’s response to Vietnam also requires consideration of historical legacy. The similarity of political and economic institution between Vietnam and China makes China believe that Vietnam will go on the same path which China expects. However, primary industry is still Vietnam’s major export industry until today which is different from China’s gradually transformation to secondary industry or service industry. These fundamental differences lead to different export strategy between China and Vietnam. It is difficult for China to establish such strategic alliance relationship with Vietnam in economy issues. The research discovers that China’s policies response to South Korea and Vietnam are different. China must consider to key factors of North Korea on Korean Peninsula. Therefore, the continuous existence of North Korea in fact alleviates the United States interaction with China in East Asia region. If the U.S. and China let the hostile situation between North Korea and South Korea continues to grow, the U.S. might push North Korea toward to China. China’s friendship with South Korea which is not easy to earn might also get lost. It will eventually influence China’s overall arrangement in East Asia. China’s response to Vietnam also requires consideration of historical legacy. The similarity of political and economic institution between Vietnam and China makes China believe that Vietnam will go on the same path which China expects. However, primary industry is still Vietnam’s major export industry until today which is different from China’s gradually transformation to secondary industry or service industry. These fundamental differences lead to different export strategy between China and Vietnam. It is difficult for China to establish such strategic alliance relationship with Vietnam in economy issues.

並列關鍵字

Hedging policy ； China foreign policy ； Sino-Korea relations ； Sino-Vietnam relations

參考文獻

壹、 中文部分

一、 專書

吳玉山，1997。《抗衡與扈從》，臺北：正中書局。

吳玉山編，2018。《中國再起：歷史與國關的對話》。臺北：國立臺灣大學出版中心。

汪偉民，2007。《聯盟理論與美國的聯盟戰略：以美日、韓美聯盟研究為例》。北京：世界知識出版社。