颱風災害前家庭食品囤貨意圖之影響機制研究

颱風災害常造成食品供應鏈中斷，食品價格上漲和銷售市場動蕩，易引發消費者恐慌性搶購和囤貨行為。颱風災前食品經銷商和供應商可能藉機採取捂盤惜售、哄抬物價等行為以提升自身利益，造成銷售市場紊亂。在歷次災害引發的搶購事件中，承擔家庭日常食品開銷的中老年婦女扮演著重要的角色。本研究以中國沿海上海、福建、廣東、浙江四省市的已婚中老年婦女為研究對象，探討中老年婦女群體囤貨意圖的形成機制，釐清對廠商的強制性社會影響、對消費者的非強制性社會影響、災害引發的情緒性反應、囤貨預期、囤貨態度是如何影響囤貨意圖的。本研究首先通過網路問卷的方式搜集樣本，運用敘述性統計、信效度分析、結構方程模式分析等方法，以檢驗假說模型的正確性。根據統計分析的結果，本研究七大獲得結論如下:一、“囤貨態度”能正向影響“囤貨意圖”。二、“囤積預期獲益”能正向影響“囤貨意圖”。三、“囤積預期獲益”能正向影響“囤貨態度”。四、“對消費者的非強制性社會規範” 能正向影響“災害導致的情感性反應”。五、“對廠商的強制性社會規範”能負向影響“災害導致的情感性反應。六、“災害導致的情感性反應”能正向影響“囤積預期獲益。七、“非強制性社會規範”能正向影響“囤貨意圖”。根據上述結論，本研究認為颱風來臨前政府應首先穩定中老年婦女的情緒，即時傳遞正確的市場資訊，強力打擊供應商、經銷商捂盤惜售行為，這有助於阻斷囤貨預期利益被無限放大，進而減少該群體的恐慌性囤貨意圖。

關鍵字

颱風災害；恐慌購買；囤貨；政府力量；規避損失

並列摘要

Typhoon’s disasters often disrupt food supply chains and cause rise in price and market failure. This will also trigger disaster-induced panic buying for hoarding behavior. Suppliers and retailers take measures to do property hoarding and bull campaign in order to promote themselves’ profits, and cause more chaos in market. Middle-aged and elderly women who are responsible for family daily expenses play an important role in hoarding. This study foscuses on married middle-aged and elderly women in Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, Zhejiang four coastal provinces in China, and investigates the formation mechanism of disaster-induced hoarding. This paper clarifies how “Coercive influence”, “Non-coercive influence”, “Disaster-induced affective”, “Expectancy of hoarding-induced benefit” and “Attitude to hoarding” impact “Disaster-induced buying for hoarding”. In this study, the author interviewed the masses with the questionnaire. After receiving all the questionnaire, the statistics of statements, reliability, effectiveness would be applied to test the hypothesis of the study. According to results of the statistics, there are seven conclusions as the following: 1. “Attitude to risk-driven hoarding” would positively influence “Disaster-induced panic buying for hoarding”. 2. “Expectancy of hoarding-induced benefit” would positively influence “Disaster-induced panic buying for hoarding”. 3. “Expectancy of hoarding-induced benefit” would positively influence “Disaster-induced panic buying for hoarding”. 4. “Non-coercive influence” would positively influence “Disaster-induced affective”. 5. “Coercive influence” would negatively influence “Disaster-induced affective”. 6. “Disaster-induced affective” would positively influence “Disaster-induced panic buying for hoarding”. 7. “Non-coercive influence” would positively influence “Disaster-induced panic buying for hoarding”. Based on above conclusions, this paper considers that the first thing need to comfort Middle-aged and elderly women’s emotions, and then spread the correct market information, containing suppliers and retailers property hoarding behavior, and decrease the disaster-induced panic buying for hoarding.