影響台灣民間投資總體經濟因素之探討

Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Investment in Taiwan

王婷姿(Ting-Tzu Wang)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.02427

摘要

本文主要目的在探討民間投資與總體變數之間的關係；經濟成長動力主要來自於技術進步與生產力提高，生產力提高又可仰賴國民儲蓄與投資增加。而投資增加可促進資本累積與生產設備更新，擴大生產規模，從而被視為經濟成長活力的重要來源。過去40年間，資本累積是台灣經濟成長的重要推力，但近年來，全球景氣趨緩，外需成長減緩，企業產能過剩與獲利不佳，促使廠商節制擴產步調，國內實質投資率呈趨降型態。投資為推動經濟發展的重要因素，而影響國內投資變化的關鍵因素更是值得探討的議題。
尤其是近十餘年來，台灣企業紛紛接踵至對岸投資設廠，民間投資受到相當程度衝擊。然而民間投資熱絡不僅可以增加就業，創造生產要素需求商機，也代表著企業對未來經濟前景的看法與信心。是以本文將以實證模型探討總體經濟因素對民間投資的影響，提供政府研擬相關政策之參考。
研究架構上，先對民間投資與各種總體變數進行因果關係檢定，並以VAR模型來驗證各種的互動關係，最後將民間投資與其他總體變數做迴歸分析。本研究利用單根檢定、相關性分析、Granger 因果關係檢定、向量自我迴歸模型(VAR)等計量方法建立實證模型。
本文參酌主要投資理論以及國內外過去文獻探討影響民間投資之因素，針對我國1986年第1季至2011年第4季的資料進行實證研究。依本文實證結果發現，我國的民間投資行為，符合學理上提出的加速理論、新古典投資理論及Tobin's q 比率理論。民間投資受公共投資、加權股價指數及國內生產毛額顯著正向影響；受外銷訂單及五大行庫放款基準利率顯著負向影響。

關鍵字

民間投資 ； 總體變數 ； 投資理論 ； 經濟成長

並列摘要

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the correlations between private investment and macroeconomic Variables. The force of economic growth mainly comes from technological progress and productivity, in addiction, enhancement of productivity also relies on increased national savings and capital. Capital is regarded as an important source of economic growth for promoting capital accumulation and renewing equipment to expand the scale of production. Capital accumulation had been the pusher of economic boom in Taiwan for the past forty years. Many enterprises stop their expansion plan so that domestic real investment has decreased in recent years since going through global economy recession.
Investment is an important component to promote economic developments, and therefore, it is worthwhile to discuss what factors affect the private investment.
Especially in nearly decades, plenty of Taiwan enterprises invest in mainland china, resulting in a crowding–out effect of domestic investment. Thriving private investment not only increases employment opportunities and create the needs of supply factors, but also represents enterprises’ views on future economic prospects and outlooks. As a result, this paper is aimed to make an analysis to the impact of macroeconomic variables on domestic private investments for the reference of government policy-makers by building an empirical model.
On the basis of research framework, first, examine the causality of private investment and macroeconomic variables. Secondly, verify the interaction by using VAR model. Lastly, evaluate the impact of macroeconomic variables on private investment by using OLS techniques. The empirical model is derived from quantitative method such as Unit Root Test, Correlation Analysis, Granger Causality Test, Vector Autoregressive Model and Ordinary Linear Squares method.
This paper consults the primary investment theories and references of empirical researches to obtain the determinants affecting the private investment, conducting empirical model by using the quarter data for the period 1986-2011. Empirical results of this study indicate that private investment behaviors of Taiwan’s enterprises are in accordance with Accelerator Principle, Neoclassical Investment Theory and Tobin's q Ratio. Public investment, Stock price index and Gross domestic product tend to have a positive effect on private investments, while Index of export orders and Interest rate on new loans of five leading banks a negative one. Evidences from M2 and Direct Investment Abroad are ambiguous.

並列關鍵字

Private Investment ； Macroeconomic Variables ； Investment Theory ； Economic Growth

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