台灣出版產業報告的困境與改革方向：賽局模型分析

The predicament and improvement of the Taiwan Publishing Report：game-theoretic analysis

吳芸甄(Yun-Chen Wu)

指導教授 ： 馮勃翰

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201901869

摘要

現行台灣出版業產值調查方法與他國透過出版協會直接調查不同，且此數字普遍不受業界人士信賴，因此，難以透過當前數字做更進一步的分析，故建立新的調查方法與產業報告為當務之急。本論文建立基本賽局的模型來找尋廠商願意投入製作產業報告並提供資訊的考量，並發現調查機構生產力為其中最主要的關鍵因素，其次為產業報告綜效和投入成本。另外，再搭配參考別國出版協會的運作模式和產業報告數據的蒐集方式來重新檢視台灣現有制度，歸納出以下兩種方向：一、若維持政府主導，則需改善招標流程，但要留意搭便車的問題能否在改善後而減少；二、若改以出版協會形式主導，可由現有的財團法人台北書展基金會轉型，能免除政府主導面對到的搭便車問題，但同時因主導方為各家出版社組成，在其考量各自利益的情況下，初期的營運模式建立需耗費長時間協調。不過無論未來選擇採取何種方向進行，數位出版品的產業報告都必須及早開始規劃。

關鍵字

出版協會 ； 產業報告 ； 賽局模型 ； 招標流程 ； 調查機構

並列摘要

The method of collecting data and conducting the survey to make the publishing yearbook in Taiwan is different from those adopted by the Publishers Associations in other countries nowadays. As the information in our reports is not able to provide the outline of the whole publishing industry, the results of the report have often been regarded as unreliable by the public. Therefore, to establish new research methods regarding the publishing reports becomes an important task.
This paper provides a basic game theory model to find the publishers' concerns and incentives to provide their information for making an industry report. Our results show that Research Institute Productivity is the key factor that first affects firms' decision, followed by Report Synergy and Input Cost. Furthermore, we examined the organization of the Publishers Associations and the methodology of collecting data for publishing reports from different countries. Based on the insights generated from this study, I therefore bring the following two solutions and a suggestion：
The first solution, referred to as the GOV WAY, is to improve the improper bidding process while we keep the present system that is dominated by the Ministry of Culture to produce and release the publishing reports. By doing so, we may increase the willingness of publishers to participate in the surveys. And the second solution, referred to as the NGO WAY, is to abandon the present system where the government plays a powerful role, turn to cooperate with the Taipei Book Fair Foundation and let TBFF be in charge of the publishing report. We may avoid the free-rider problem occurring in the GOV WAY then. Taking too much time or even failing to reach consensus among members, however, may somehow let the NGO WAY be less efficient than the GOV WAY. Finally, besides the reform focusing on the traditional book industry, we should pay attention to the blooming digital publishing markets as well, and establish any related industry research as soon as possible.

並列關鍵字

publisher association ； industry report ； game theory models ； bidding processing ； research institute

參考文獻

Association of American Publishers（美國出版協會）. https://publishers.org/ .

Bergstrom, Ted, Hal R. Varian and Larry Blume（1986）, “On the private provision of public goods”, Journal of Public Economics, 29, 2549. North-Holland.

Börsenverein des Deutschen Buchhandels （2019）, “Business Press Conference Book buyers: developments and opportunities. A look at Germany’s book market in 2018”.

Börsenverein des Deutschen Buchhandels（德國書商協會）.

https://www.boersenverein.de/de/portal/index.html .