台灣地區酒精飲料業者
即飲型產品銷售量預測之檢討分析

新產品上市前進行市場調查研究，已經在台灣廣泛的應用，市場調查可以得知消費者對新產品的接受度、新產品的預定售價是否能被消費者接受、以及預測新產品的潛在市場有多大，是否值得投入更多的資源。市場調查研究對新產品的行銷策略會產生必然的影響，產品的包裝設計、口味的改良，價格策略的調整，廣告促銷資源的分配、以及廣告促銷方式的改變，配銷通路的分佈率…等等。透過個案的研究去探討市場調查對預測新產品的銷售量是否準確，那些重要因子會影響預測的準確性。當內、外環境發生變化時，業者是如何面對動態的變化而採取有效的因應行動，透過這些質化的瞭解，將這些因子納入變數中，可以縮小實際與預測之間的差異。新產品銷售量預測，必須從更多面向的角度去思考，有時政府政策及法令規章的變動，可能造成市場結構性的改變。新競爭者的加入、消費行為的改變亦是影響預測準確性與否的潛在因子。

關鍵字

銷售預測

並列摘要

The objectives of market research for the new product pre-launch are: 1. To estimate the trial and adoption rates based on the raw model. 2. To estimate the volume in on-trade and off-trade for the first two years based on different distribution builds and media plans. 3. To identify an acceptable range of prices from the consumer’s point of view. 4. To find out the source of business Alcoholic beverages that are likely to be cannibalized. 5. To find out the acceptability of the actual product and areas of improvement. Furthermore, the market research also provides guidance for the refinement of marketing plans. For example: • Pricing • Appeal of different pack formats • Importance of sampling • Distribution planning • Media planning The case study explores the new product volume forecast of market research in the first 2 years and identifies the key factors, which influence the forecast accuracy. To understand the actions that the company took to reflect the dynamic environment change could be a factor for reducing the gap between the forecast and actual volume. To project the new product volume has to consider from different dimensions. Sometimes the government policy and regulation change may cause the structural change in the market. New competitors and consumer behavior change are also the key factors that will impact on the forecast accuracy.