台灣國際旅客旅遊暨旅行的競合關係－中國來台開放觀光政策對他國是否有排擠效果？

An Exploration of the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness to the Destination Taiwan : Is There Crowding out Effect of China’s Open-Door Tour to Taiwan?

徐佩君(Pei-Chun Hsu)

指導教授 ： 吳珮瑛

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201802107

摘要

國際的旅遊暨旅行基本上是自由遷移的活動，近幾年的資料顯示，來臺灣旅遊暨旅行的人次占比最大的為日本、香港、韓國及美國等國家。而中國自2008年執行對台開放觀光政策後、即有大量中國旅客來台，一般認為中國旅客的增加可能對其他國家來台旅遊人次有負面影響。具體而言，中國旅客來台旅遊人次變動的增加，可能造成其他國家來台國際旅客人次的減少，進而使臺灣的觀光收益減少。因此，本研究主要目的是探討中國到臺灣之之旅客和其它來台之國際旅客的競合關係。同時利用涵蓋聯合國觀光組織編制的旅遊暨旅行競爭的局部因子（Travel and Tourism Competitive Index）形成擴充之旅遊與暨旅行重力模型，探討中國對台開放觀光政策下，對其他來台旅客人次的影響，進而也探討旅客人次變動下對臺灣觀光收益的影響。
本文透過擴充重力模型實證顯示，中國每增加1%來台之旅客人次，其它國家整體的旅客人次則減少0.0633%。自中國開放來台觀光政策後，從2008年來台旅客為329,204人次、占來台國際旅客人次的9.13%，成長至2015年的4,184,102人次、占來台國際旅客的40.72%，而其它國家來台的旅客人次則減少，尤其以日本最為明顯，由1995年來台旅客之914,325人次、占來台國際旅客人次的41.78%，至2015年的1,627,229人次、已降至占來台國際旅客的15.83%。由1995年來台國際旅客比例最高的日本，到2015年已轉變成為中國，此乃顯示來台旅遊暨旅行主要國家組成的改變。
為能得知中國旅客來台造成其它國家來台人次減少所造成得支出之減少，本研究以模擬方式，假設所排擠全是來自消費最高與消費最低的國家。2015年中國旅客相較於1995-2015年平均之觀光收益多約5,117百萬美元，如排擠人次全來自消費最低國家，此時排擠的觀光收益約為719百萬美元，此一結果造成臺灣保有最大的觀光收益4,398百萬美元。而如排擠人次全來自消費最高國家時，此時排擠的觀光收益約為1,621百萬美元，此一結果造成臺灣僅有的最小總觀光收益3,496百萬美元。以中國旅客來台最明顯的2009年至2015年，平均而言每增加1%來自中國旅客的收益，如全部排擠的是花錢最高國家之觀光客，則減少約0.33%的收益，而如全部排擠的是花錢最低國家之觀光客，則減少約0.13%的收益，而如果排擠的是過去來台的19個國家，則減少約0.19%的收益。

關鍵字

世界觀光組織 ； 擴充重力模型 ； 旅遊暨旅行競爭指標 ； 長期追蹤資料 ； 中國對台觀光開放政策 ； 物價指數

並列摘要

According to inbound visitor statistics, most of the international tourists in Taiwan come from Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and the United States. Since China revised its tourism policy to Taiwan in 2008, there has been a large number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan. It is generally believed that the growth of Chinese tourists may have a negative impact on the number of tourists from other countries and will reduce Taiwan’s tourism revenue. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to explore if there is competitive relationship between tourists from China and those from other countries to Taiwan? To achieve such purpose, this study forms an expanded travel and tourism gravity model by including certain specific indicators from the Travel and Tourism Competitive Index framed by World Tourism Organization to explore the change of on revenue by international tourists and tourism due to the change on the number of international tourists and tourism to Taiwan.
The empirical evidence shows that every 1% increase in the number of tourists from China causes a 0.0633% decrease in the total number of tourists from other countries. Since China changed its tourism policy the percentage of Chinese tourists to Taiwan has risen from 9.13% (329,204 people) in 2008 to 40.72% (4,184,102 people) in 2016. During the same period, the numbers of tourists from other countries especially those from Japan, have been reduced. In 1995, Taiwan hosted 914,325 Japanese tourists accounting for 41.78% of the total number of tourists and ranked the top among all the international tourists. However, it has declined to 1,627,229 people accounting for15.83% in 2015. In the meantime, China has replaced Japan and accounted for the major part of international tourists in Taiwan. This indicates a significant change of the tourists’ composition of Taiwan.
To analyze the change of revenue arising from the change of international tourists’ composition of Taiwan, this study simulates two extreme scenarios to compute the change of tourist and tourism revenue of Taiwan. The newest number of tourists from China in 2015 compared to the average number in 1995-2015 is US$5,117 million. If China tourists crowd out those countries with the lowest tourism expenditure total tourism revenue will be reduced by 719 million US dollars this will then leave tourism revenue with the maximum amount of US$ 4,398 million in Taiwan. On the contrary, if China tourists crow out those countries with the highest tourism expenditure then the total tourism revenue will be reduced by US$ 1,621 million. This leaves the tourism revenue with the minimum amount of US$3,496 million in Taiwan. To summary, every 1% increase of tourism revenue from Chinese tourists reduces 0.33% revenue from the tourists for countries with the highest expenditure. Similarly, every 1% increase of tourism revenue from Chinese tourists reduces 0.13 % revenue for the countries with the lowest expenditure. Finally, every 1% increase of tourism revenue from Chinese tourists reduce 0.19% revenue from the tourists of 19 countries who visit Taiwan mostly in the past 21 years.

並列關鍵字

World Tourism Organization ； Extended Gravity Model ； Tourism and Travel Competition Indicators ； Panel Data ； China Policy ； Price Index

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