台灣旅遊業一直是一項重要的經濟產業。本論文以交通部觀光局的統計資料為研究對象,共選取七大熱門景點當作樣本,研究期間為2008年一月到2017年十二月,共120個月,以縱橫資料的型態進行分析,為符合資料型態,使用負二項迴歸模型並考量固定效果,探討影響景點旅遊人數的因素,特別加入氣候因素的影響,並提出對台灣觀光業未來能改善的方向。實證結果發現,觀光人數會受到氣候的影響,平均氣溫、雨量、降雨天數、颱風季節皆與觀光人數呈現顯著的負相關,參考本研究分析的結果,政府或旅遊業者可以將氣候因素納入考量,提出方案去改善氣候所帶來的負面影響來吸引更多的遊客。
Tourism industry in Taiwan has always been an important economic industry. This research takes the statistics of the Tourism Bureau, Ministry of Transportation and Communications as the research object. Seven hot tourist attractions are selected as samples. The research period is from January 2008 to December 2017, a total of 120 months, with the type of panel data. This research uses the Negative Binomial Model and considers the Fixed-effect to explore the factors affecting the number of visitors to tourist attractions, especially the impact of climate factors, and proposes how to improve the future of tourism industry in Taiwan. The empirical analysis shows that the number of visitors will be affected by the climate. The average temperature, rainfall, rainfall days and typhoon season are significantly negatively correlated with the number of visitors. According to the results of this research, the government and the tourism industry can consider the climatic factors, and propose a solution to improve the negative impact of climate to attract more visitors.