- 學位論文
臺灣永續能源發展之潛勢分析
The Potential Analysis of the Sustainable Energy Development in Taiwan
摘要
臺灣地狹人稠之外，包括化石能源之內的天然資源都相當匱乏。根據最新之能源平衡表顯示，臺灣初級能源自產率僅有0. 79%，電力自產率也僅達3. 81%。臺灣現今之能源供給處於一種對進口能源極度依賴的不平衡狀態下，因此發展再生能源對提升臺灣之能源供給自給率和能源安全上，不但「無悔」，也有其絕對的必要性。 發展再生能源雖然重要，但臺灣是否有足夠的條件得以發展再生能源達到永續能源供給之目的亦為重要之制約項。因此，本研究運用能源規劃模型EnergyPLAN，以能源市場中最主要之電力市場為例，以2025年為情境基本年，模擬出四種不同之情境（情境一：能源節約-總電力需求降低10%，情境二：效率提升-將總體發電系統之發電效率提升至80%，情境三：將既有之再生能源開發由現階段之30.84 %提升至60%與情境四：結合情境一∼情境三），以探討「臺灣大規模導入再生能源之可能性與必要條件」。 結果顯示，結合所有情境之情境四之超額供給最多之外，情境一∼情境三中，以提升發電效率所能達到之效果最好，其次為降低需求量，最後才是再生能源之開發。主要原因在於，即便將臺灣所有再生能源做100%之開發，其占2025年所需裝置容量之34. 43%，雖可以大幅提升電力供給自給率與能源安全性，但就臺灣能源供給之未來發展性而言，對於化石能源之依賴度仍高達67. 2%~78. 5%，恐未能達到完全永續能源供給之目的。此外，本模型結果亦顯示臺灣電力系統的問題除了供給量之外，分配上的問題亦不容忽視。 再者，在重點發展能源的選擇上，淨能源與環境成本分析亦應並重，以避免不必要之社會成本損失。本研究以臺灣發展最成熟之風力能源為例，進行其生命週期中之淨能源指標能源報酬EROI與二氧化碳排放分析，說明再生能源之發展應重視多面向之考量。結果顯示雖然臺灣風力發電之表現與國際水準相較之下並不遜色，但仍可透過改善其過低之發電效率以提升臺灣風能之淨能源投資報酬。 最後，本研究提出政策建議，認為應該1. 建立低耗能高效率之能源供需系統，2. 發展分散式能源技術，3. 不同階段採用不同之再生能源政策工具，4. 以淨能源作為能源政策之基礎以更接近永續能源發展之目標。
並列摘要
Owing to the specific geometric feature and the high population density in Taiwan, the nature resource such as fossil energy is quite of deficiency. According to the energy balance table published in 2008, the self-produced ratio of preliminary energy in Taiwan is only 0.70% and it is only 3.81% for the electricity. The dependence of energy demand on the imported energy is at an extremely unbalanced situation. Therefore, it is definitely necessary and no-regretful for the overall development on the renewable energy in Taiwan in terms of the efficiency of energy self-supply and energy safety. However, it is important to consider if the conditions and environment in Taiwan are suitable for the development of renewable energy as the sustainable energy. Taking the main energy market, the electricity market, as an example, this study attempted to use an energy programming model, EnergyPLAN, to investigate the possibility and requirement for Taiwan to compressively develop the renewable energy. Four scenarios were simulated using 2025 as the reference year: 1. Energy saving-To reduce 10% of the overall electricity demand. 2. Efficiency enhancing: To enhance the efficiency of overall electricity system to 80%. 3. To enhance the developed rate of renewable energy reserves from 30.8% to 60%. 4. To combine the results of scenarios 1-3. Our results shows that for the sustainable energy development in Taiwan, the best instrument is to enhance the electricity efficiency, then to reduce the energy demand, and at last to develop the renewable energy. Even all of the renewable energy is developed, its share of the installed capacity in 2025 can be only 34.43%, which enhances the energy self-supply and safety in Taiwan but still hardlymatch the demand. The occupation of energy consumption relying on the fossil energy is still as high as 67.2-78.5% though. The results also revealed that the issue of distribution system can’t be neglected in addition to the power supply of electricity system in Taiwan. Moreover, the development of the net energy and environmental cost analysis should be concerned as economic costs for avoiding unnecessary social costs. Based on the relatively well-developed system of wind energy in Taiwan, we analyzed the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) and the CO2 emission in the life cycle to reveal that the sorted considerations should be. The results exhibit that the performance of the wind power iii systems in Taiwan is comparative to the international ones, but the EROIs can be still enhanced via improving the low efficiency of electricity system Several policy suggestions were recommended as followings: 1. To establish the energy supply system with low energy loss and high performance efficiency. 2. To develop the distributed energy technology. 3. To adapt applicable energy policy measures in every single process. 4. To approach the objective of the net energy as the basic concept for energy incentive/susidies instruments.